{ "ticker": { "uuid": "42ff2b42-5958-4dc3-b870-b29590713bb6", "symbol": "OCPTR", "name": "Open Capital Total Return L", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 77.624, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -21.629, "architecture_energy": 7.646, "architecture_maturity": 10.916, "architecture_confidence": 53.371, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.22, "rotation_up": 30.29, "upward_expansion": 17.67, "deceleration": 41.37, "rotation_down": 30.96, "downward_expansion": 60.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 121.796771, 121.854771, 122.61551, 122.600578 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 126.272003, "trend_reference": 122.645325, "distance_from_trend": 0.02957, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 116.075511, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.087844, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.514567, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.024586, "excess_performance": -0.146306, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.02957, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001585, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.087844, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008071, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.115146, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012647, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.024586, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 341, "relative_activity": 14.95614, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 5.0, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 8.519568, "annualized_volatility": 0.513319, "from_high_reference": -0.990009, "from_low_reference": 0.308203 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 122.645325, "fair_value_reference": 116.075511, "structural_low": 96.523219, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.000149, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.03368, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.048085, "worst_return": -0.03033, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.00991, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.057706, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.04216, "worst_return": -0.045287, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.008363, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.078229, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.052551, "worst_return": -0.035825, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.014336, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003606, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011812, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024319, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009306, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2026-03-06", 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123.175333, "fair_value": 115.788, "relative_strength": -11.926399, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.035945, "energy": 15.544197, "activity_lines": [ 125.456799, 125.104381, 124.18618, 123.695208 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 97.000774, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 122.347659, "fair_value": 115.723178, "relative_strength": -30.445745, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.212368, "energy": 16.078177, "activity_lines": [ 116.008724, 120.055413, 121.674254, 122.006527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 124.999001, "volume": 3, "typical_volume": 0.15, "trend": 122.442159, "fair_value": 115.832736, "relative_strength": -9.893557, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.999426, "energy": 13.28849, "activity_lines": [ 117.75334, 120.584854, 121.95556, 122.177581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 125.265999, "volume": 112, "typical_volume": 5.75, "trend": 122.539392, "fair_value": 115.950575, "relative_strength": -9.968718, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.753172, "energy": 12.175776, "activity_lines": [ 119.613021, 121.136185, 122.246961, 122.359764 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 126.272003, "volume": 341, "typical_volume": 22.8, "trend": 122.645325, "fair_value": 116.075511, "relative_strength": -11.514567, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.628644, "energy": 7.646479, "activity_lines": [ 121.796771, 121.854771, 122.61551, 122.600578 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }