{ "ticker": { "uuid": "42ff405c-6a37-4704-a0db-6cc04b502df8", "symbol": "S2R", "name": "S2 Resources Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 41.756, "architecture_energy": 59.389, "architecture_maturity": 14.031, "architecture_confidence": 56.955, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.11, "rotation_up": 73.38, "upward_expansion": 64.36, "deceleration": 18.43, "rotation_down": 16.87, "downward_expansion": 20.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.071267, 0.067909, 0.065014, 0.064576 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.073, "trend_reference": 0.064867, "distance_from_trend": 0.125385, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.100942, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.276815, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.327282, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.15873, "excess_performance": 0.095025, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.125385, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050732, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.276815, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.167828, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.073273, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.15628, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.15873, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.616239, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 606633, "relative_activity": 0.528073, "balance": 1.616239, "dry_up": 0.7966, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09589, "annualized_volatility": 0.427846, "from_high_reference": -0.478571, "from_low_reference": 0.403846 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.064867, "fair_value_reference": 0.100942, "structural_low": 0.052, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.022727, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.022095, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.264706, "worst_return": -0.139535, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.212121, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.202625, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.194444, "worst_return": -0.318182, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.113562, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.134525, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.235955, "worst_return": -0.242424, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-13.264758, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.019617, "energy": 13.089072, "activity_lines": [ 0.062867, 0.061309, 0.061776, 0.062877 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.067, "volume": 692506, "typical_volume": 1409649.7, "trend": 0.064567, "fair_value": 0.102846, "relative_strength": -10.471411, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.095464, "energy": 26.777633, "activity_lines": [ 0.064933, 0.062436, 0.062195, 0.063028 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.075, "volume": 1761531, "typical_volume": 1416197.9, "trend": 0.064733, "fair_value": 0.102237, "relative_strength": 0.311601, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.648822, "energy": 49.001115, "activity_lines": [ 0.068867, 0.064891, 0.06339, 0.063701 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.07, "volume": 599764, "typical_volume": 1257331.65, "trend": 0.0647, "fair_value": 0.101532, "relative_strength": -8.545497, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.915111, "energy": 52.022327, "activity_lines": [ 0.0698, 0.0662, 0.064071, 0.064041 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.073, "volume": 606633, "typical_volume": 1148767.3, "trend": 0.064867, "fair_value": 0.100942, "relative_strength": -7.327282, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.756171, "energy": 59.389318, "activity_lines": [ 0.071267, 0.067909, 0.065014, 0.064576 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }