{ "ticker": { "uuid": "43024e6f-669b-4345-85ea-f7406e43aa16", "symbol": "FJPR", "name": "Fidelity Japan Equity Research Enhanced UCITS ETF JPY Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.444, "architecture_energy": 40.601, "architecture_maturity": 64.424, "architecture_confidence": 75.739, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.27, "rotation_up": 39.88, "upward_expansion": 68.24, "deceleration": 85.5, "rotation_down": 27.7, "downward_expansion": 18.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.0736, 7.092109, 6.969576, 6.820619 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.262, "trend_reference": 6.645333, "distance_from_trend": 0.092797, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.5465, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.309294, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.086239, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.135397, "excess_performance": -0.035495, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.092797, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05909, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.309294, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055463, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.010862, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011787, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.135397, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.549007, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5835, "relative_activity": 0.258356, "balance": 2.549007, "dry_up": 0.80014, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026333, "annualized_volatility": 0.194831, "from_high_reference": -0.00302, "from_low_reference": 0.302134 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.645333, "fair_value_reference": 5.5465, "structural_low": 5.963, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.028274, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.021068, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.075748, "worst_return": -0.018637, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.066028, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.009703, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.191496, "worst_return": -0.049629, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.065286, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.030528, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.117998, "worst_return": 0.012574, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.132055, 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"2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013439, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.054395, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051586, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040242, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009978, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02446, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": 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"gate": "up", "direction": 52.436106, "energy": 48.566692, "activity_lines": [ 7.050933, 7.065636, 6.895119, 6.753774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.957, "volume": 37129, "typical_volume": 22667.8, "trend": 6.6077, "fair_value": 5.530365, "relative_strength": -2.427641, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.261008, "energy": 33.839813, "activity_lines": [ 7.0042, 7.052291, 6.919619, 6.778406 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.262, "volume": 5835, "typical_volume": 22585.1, "trend": 6.645333, "fair_value": 5.5465, "relative_strength": -1.086239, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.444, "energy": 40.600863, "activity_lines": [ 7.0736, 7.092109, 6.969576, 6.820619 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }