{ "ticker": { "uuid": "430aab75-4c21-4a49-88f3-0b6e13c17134", "symbol": "R1YA34", "name": "Ryanair Holdings plc", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -25.331, "architecture_energy": 18.059, "architecture_maturity": 29.099, "architecture_confidence": 60.147, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.29, "rotation_up": 22.8, "upward_expansion": 24.18, "deceleration": 58.04, "rotation_down": 41.06, "downward_expansion": 55.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.490167, 38.927108, 38.113228, 38.638053 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 38.599998, "trend_reference": 40.099589, "distance_from_trend": -0.037397, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 35.002502, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.102778, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.299375, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.167745, "excess_performance": -0.110696, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.037397, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059778, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.102778, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.120602, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.132994, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.212432, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.167745, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.123386, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43, "relative_activity": 0.275112, "balance": 1.123386, "dry_up": 1.509917, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052764, "annualized_volatility": 0.434624, "from_high_reference": -0.254583, "from_low_reference": 0.165459 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.099589, "fair_value_reference": 35.002502, "structural_low": 33.119999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.070817, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.017858, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.098058, "worst_return": 0.043575, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.134501, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.037708, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.18755, "worst_return": 0.081453, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.186758, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.016419, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.429042, "worst_return": -0.055526, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.145833, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.054369, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003683, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.103143, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.061449, 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-22.430767, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.383231, "energy": 64.381767, "activity_lines": [ 35.972667, 36.004545, 37.775952, 39.83198 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 35.810001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 123.7, "trend": 41.934512, "fair_value": 34.316009, "relative_strength": -20.906978, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.375406, "energy": 49.498662, "activity_lines": [ 36.106, 35.847091, 37.414809, 39.420832 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 41.52, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 123.35, "trend": 41.816803, "fair_value": 34.42852, "relative_strength": -10.531876, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.560293, "energy": 24.198785, "activity_lines": [ 37.975334, 36.806909, 37.638238, 39.394089 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 41.109562, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 113.0, "trend": 41.739851, "fair_value": 34.538399, "relative_strength": -11.675637, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.639906, "energy": 24.637062, "activity_lines": [ 39.159854, 37.641739, 37.84572, 39.348461 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 40.671806, "volume": 17, "typical_volume": 113.85, "trend": 41.648307, "fair_value": 34.632145, "relative_strength": -14.045861, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 7.038844, "energy": 31.902214, "activity_lines": [ 39.985819, 38.354075, 38.02337, 39.279554 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 41.985081, "volume": 194, "typical_volume": 123.05, "trend": 41.398718, "fair_value": 34.734308, "relative_strength": -8.805874, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 19.032197, "energy": 42.902421, "activity_lines": [ 40.986088, 39.270247, 38.340038, 39.301282 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.254414, "volume": 678, "typical_volume": 153.7, "trend": 40.958106, "fair_value": 34.81856, "relative_strength": -20.761613, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.241626, "energy": 26.004668, "activity_lines": [ 39.664462, 38.986568, 38.118285, 38.969391 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.736828, "volume": 29, "typical_volume": 154.2, "trend": 40.514462, "fair_value": 34.910077, "relative_strength": -18.713849, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.461215, "energy": 13.301617, "activity_lines": [ 38.807348, 38.918703, 38.067169, 38.761567 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.599998, "volume": 43, "typical_volume": 156.3, "trend": 40.099589, "fair_value": 35.002502, "relative_strength": -13.299375, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.331197, "energy": 18.059354, "activity_lines": [ 38.490167, 38.927108, 38.113228, 38.638053 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }