{ "ticker": { "uuid": "430bd66e-9d9f-482c-a241-e21dba5503c9", "symbol": "CEC", "name": "Ceconomy AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -27.304, "architecture_energy": 19.092, "architecture_maturity": 87.572, "architecture_confidence": 65.992, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.84, "rotation_up": 31.32, "upward_expansion": 17.52, "deceleration": 46.82, "rotation_down": 19.5, "downward_expansion": 51.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.990333, 3.933, 3.956071, 4.037473 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 4.005, "trend_reference": 4.149, "distance_from_trend": -0.034707, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.244391, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.234438, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.330082, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.097973, "excess_performance": -0.162613, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.034707, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042428, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.234438, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127817, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.133301, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140776, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.097973, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.423542, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 143238, "relative_activity": 0.973547, "balance": 0.423542, "dry_up": 1.006641, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056372, "annualized_volatility": 0.178747, "from_high_reference": -0.127451, "from_low_reference": 0.088315 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.149, "fair_value_reference": 3.244391, "structural_low": 3.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": -0.00182, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.662595, "worst_return": -0.256614, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.088926, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.040155, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.595916, "worst_return": -0.402558, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.282748, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.193473, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.779688, "worst_return": -0.510049, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.188394, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003177, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026757, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.187107, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.144909, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011377, "active": 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"close": 3.88, "volume": 241688, "typical_volume": 170225.9, "trend": 4.211333, "fair_value": 3.211513, "relative_strength": -12.598165, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.623351, "energy": 47.995482, "activity_lines": [ 3.833333, 3.854273, 3.985952, 4.086914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.995, "volume": 209582, "typical_volume": 175494.2, "trend": 4.195833, "fair_value": 3.219596, "relative_strength": -9.140925, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.125914, "energy": 32.797614, "activity_lines": [ 3.892333, 3.868727, 3.975833, 4.072957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.98, "volume": 137862, "typical_volume": 171357.25, "trend": 4.179167, "fair_value": 3.227686, "relative_strength": -10.32409, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.178695, "energy": 21.233603, "activity_lines": [ 3.934667, 3.885091, 3.966024, 4.059032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.005, "volume": 101747, "typical_volume": 168633.35, "trend": 4.165, "fair_value": 3.235821, "relative_strength": -11.306867, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.688155, "energy": 20.011805, "activity_lines": [ 3.972667, 3.910182, 3.960262, 4.047796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.005, "volume": 143238, "typical_volume": 147130.1, "trend": 4.149, "fair_value": 3.244391, "relative_strength": -13.330082, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.30362, "energy": 19.092265, "activity_lines": [ 3.990333, 3.933, 3.956071, 4.037473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }