{ "ticker": { "uuid": "43122979-d7af-4881-a94a-141f00866826", "symbol": "FDMT", "name": "4D Molecular Therapeutics\u00a0Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 55.798, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.804, "architecture_energy": 18.326, "architecture_maturity": 60.176, "architecture_confidence": 86.523, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.43, "rotation_up": 27.97, "upward_expansion": 60.69, "deceleration": 88.04, "rotation_down": 27.31, "downward_expansion": 13.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.598, 10.857273, 10.377857, 10.058194 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 10.75, "trend_reference": 9.608, "distance_from_trend": 0.118859, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.980801, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.102731, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.213328, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.195773, "excess_performance": 0.008319, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.118859, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033081, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.102731, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096947, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.012133, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07822, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.195773, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.415167, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2251073, "relative_activity": 0.574677, "balance": 1.415167, "dry_up": 0.779149, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.160766, "annualized_volatility": 0.627793, "from_high_reference": -0.232143, "from_low_reference": 1.016848 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.608, "fair_value_reference": 11.980801, "structural_low": 7.96, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.040525, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.032112, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.490909, "worst_return": -0.308118, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.119165, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.156876, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.528914, "worst_return": -0.173077, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.230332, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.449437, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.272214, "worst_return": -0.475055, "sufficient": false }, { 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"2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.528914, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.130184, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.129397, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.390374, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.126726, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 16.04, "volume": 1306029, "typical_volume": 2466535.9, "trend": 18.485833, "fair_value": 21.852979, "relative_strength": -18.051674, "stage": 4, "regime": 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10.292727, 9.865143, 9.568129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.31, "volume": 3608588, "typical_volume": 4031834.2, "trend": 9.257333, "fair_value": 12.168237, "relative_strength": 19.102474, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.563807, "energy": 74.651147, "activity_lines": [ 11.766667, 10.737818, 10.126905, 9.768237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.99, "volume": 3196484, "typical_volume": 4007929.05, "trend": 9.334333, "fair_value": 12.123109, "relative_strength": 9.723032, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.15088, "energy": 70.558012, "activity_lines": [ 11.736667, 10.884364, 10.247286, 9.880022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.07, "volume": 3814032, "typical_volume": 3945526.5, "trend": 9.404333, "fair_value": 12.070096, "relative_strength": 1.27398, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.2002, "energy": 53.635293, "activity_lines": [ 11.256, 10.848182, 10.273714, 9.927484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.18, "volume": 2946446, "typical_volume": 3973702.65, "trend": 9.499667, "fair_value": 12.019135, "relative_strength": 1.396302, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.738401, "energy": 22.897738, "activity_lines": [ 10.784667, 10.815273, 10.303048, 9.977527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.75, "volume": 2251073, "typical_volume": 3917107.85, "trend": 9.608, "fair_value": 11.980801, "relative_strength": 1.213328, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.80403, "energy": 18.326103, "activity_lines": [ 10.598, 10.857273, 10.377857, 10.058194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }