{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4316216f-2bdf-4e93-993b-c366aacbb68e", "symbol": "PILITA", "name": "Pil Italica Lifestyle Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 87.367, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 50.553, "architecture_energy": 29.337, "architecture_maturity": 8.275, "architecture_confidence": 49.268, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.92, "rotation_up": 43.88, "upward_expansion": 69.66, "deceleration": 59.98, "rotation_down": 21.35, "downward_expansion": 7.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.73, 8.704909, 8.497905, 8.351011 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.61, "trend_reference": 8.314, "distance_from_trend": 0.035603, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.211282, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.294914, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.872142, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.030405, "excess_performance": 0.013304, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035603, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079393, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.294914, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044797, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.128721, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06556, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.030405, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.115491, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 225117, "relative_activity": 0.544295, "balance": 0.115491, "dry_up": 0.706917, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07594, "annualized_volatility": 0.421362, "from_high_reference": -0.458491, "from_low_reference": 0.38871 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.314, "fair_value_reference": 12.211282, "structural_low": 6.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.02336, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": 0.006016, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.277273, "worst_return": -0.257246, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.084232, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.066794, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.354286, "worst_return": -0.286232, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.040264, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.078, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.253968, "worst_return": -0.421421, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.118072, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057705, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022152, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.207212, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.130159, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062271, "active": 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8.415667, "fair_value": 12.228526, "relative_strength": -12.031533, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.127604, "energy": 48.443685, "activity_lines": [ 8.852, 8.577455, 8.333429, 8.286387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.88, "volume": 371365, "typical_volume": 459901.5, "trend": 8.362667, "fair_value": 12.227115, "relative_strength": -9.236582, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.952925, "energy": 51.495744, "activity_lines": [ 8.906, 8.662, 8.408952, 8.316344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.62, "volume": 318806, "typical_volume": 416616.15, "trend": 8.33, "fair_value": 12.219231, "relative_strength": -13.07973, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.374055, "energy": 44.130592, "activity_lines": [ 8.826, 8.69, 8.456952, 8.332946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.61, "volume": 225117, "typical_volume": 413593.65, "trend": 8.314, "fair_value": 12.211282, "relative_strength": -12.872142, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.553306, "energy": 29.33743, "activity_lines": [ 8.73, 8.704909, 8.497905, 8.351011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }