{ "ticker": { "uuid": "43220488-ddfc-4231-8e34-284d21dd2940", "symbol": "USESG", "name": "UBS MSCI USA Selection UCITS ETF USD acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 90.212, "architecture_energy": 73.605, "architecture_maturity": 68.997, "architecture_confidence": 77.018, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.32, "rotation_up": 60.84, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 66.33, "rotation_down": 29.1, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 263.95, 262.502545, 257.947333, 251.723269 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 269.51001, "trend_reference": 244.855, "distance_from_trend": 0.100692, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 223.699804, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.204784, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.446669, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.161781, "excess_performance": -0.00911, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.100692, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039777, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.204784, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054623, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.024467, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00926, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.161781, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.678622, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 267, "relative_activity": 0.516541, "balance": 3.678622, "dry_up": 0.996808, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015099, "annualized_volatility": 0.131212, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.255228 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 244.855, "fair_value_reference": 223.699804, "structural_low": 218.429993, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.022265, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.001301, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.038607, "worst_return": -0.007313, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": 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"energy": 64.13599, "activity_lines": [ 261.479329, 260.762179, 255.961761, 250.065742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 269.51001, "volume": 267, "typical_volume": 516.9, "trend": 244.855, "fair_value": 223.699804, "relative_strength": -2.446669, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.212307, "energy": 73.604551, "activity_lines": [ 263.95, 262.502545, 257.947333, 251.723269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }