{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4326517f-4f0d-483f-b335-c4e485018578", "symbol": "HLZ", "name": "Holaluz-Clidom, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 64.585, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 10.544, "architecture_energy": 23.374, "architecture_maturity": 30.019, "architecture_confidence": 45.567, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.1, "rotation_up": 51.77, "upward_expansion": 42.46, "deceleration": 27.05, "rotation_down": 16.27, "downward_expansion": 17.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.826933, 0.819527, 0.821695, 0.81988 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.826, "trend_reference": 0.8258, "distance_from_trend": 0.000242, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.648609, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.498972, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -23.751126, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.007317, "excess_performance": -0.117114, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000242, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015498, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.498972, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088552, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.237511, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051128, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.007317, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.715312, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.715312, "dry_up": 0.053319, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026821, "annualized_volatility": 0.222934, "from_high_reference": -0.344444, "from_low_reference": 0.18 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.8258, "fair_value_reference": 1.648609, "structural_low": 0.704, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.034483, "positive_rate": 0.235294, "directional_follow_through": 0.235294, "median_excess_return": -0.067209, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.217391, "worst_return": -0.555738, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.050575, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.111111, "median_excess_return": -0.163161, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.086207, "worst_return": -0.54918, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.380952, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.592575, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.097744, "worst_return": -0.604918, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.038732, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.157895, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.115789, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.052174, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.107759, "active": false 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.099187, "energy": 10.585875, "activity_lines": [ 0.816667, 0.814182, 0.819714, 0.819966 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.826, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 31120.2, "trend": 0.826, "fair_value": 1.702763, "relative_strength": -23.816743, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.677859, "energy": 11.214698, "activity_lines": [ 0.822933, 0.816073, 0.820562, 0.820095 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.826, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 30092.5, "trend": 0.829333, "fair_value": 1.676391, "relative_strength": -23.371016, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.151814, "energy": 16.844261, "activity_lines": [ 0.826133, 0.817855, 0.82119, 0.820095 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.826, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 29074.75, "trend": 0.8258, "fair_value": 1.648609, "relative_strength": -23.751126, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.544451, "energy": 23.373663, "activity_lines": [ 0.826933, 0.819527, 0.821695, 0.81988 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }