{ "ticker": { "uuid": "433092a8-b036-448c-b608-5d7ac642bc2a", "symbol": "SIMH3", "name": "SIMPAR S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -76.946, "architecture_energy": 69.836, "architecture_maturity": 49.969, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 24.83, "upward_expansion": 13.32, "deceleration": 46.85, "rotation_down": 60.5, "downward_expansion": 86.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.445333, 7.662909, 8.363983, 9.1332 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.04, "trend_reference": 10.183831, "distance_from_trend": -0.308708, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.518442, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.388806, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.268737, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.490593, "excess_performance": -0.433545, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.308708, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096176, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.388806, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.218588, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.342687, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163119, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.490593, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.255712, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11796000, "relative_activity": 0.991813, "balance": 0.255712, "dry_up": 0.983695, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109716, "annualized_volatility": 0.453364, "from_high_reference": -0.527517, "from_low_reference": 0.014409 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.183831, "fair_value_reference": 11.518442, "structural_low": 6.94, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.02578, "positive_rate": 0.565217, "directional_follow_through": 0.434783, "median_excess_return": 0.026184, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.380952, "worst_return": -0.337615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.081169, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.05754, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.448052, "worst_return": -0.330799, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.006059, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.083256, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.258231, "worst_return": -0.203105, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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14099908.25, "trend": 10.588165, "fair_value": 11.837333, "relative_strength": -28.065363, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.414345, "energy": 73.074339, "activity_lines": [ 8.031333, 8.263325, 9.183803, 9.910168 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.54, "volume": 12665000, "typical_volume": 13763733.25, "trend": 10.498165, "fair_value": 11.768544, "relative_strength": -31.691125, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.942402, "energy": 71.602213, "activity_lines": [ 7.861333, 8.073832, 8.957969, 9.713512 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.46, "volume": 12646800, "typical_volume": 12744682.2, "trend": 10.398831, "fair_value": 11.696839, "relative_strength": -32.072626, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.13934, "energy": 72.063739, "activity_lines": [ 7.732667, 7.920066, 8.748851, 9.517501 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.71, "volume": 9690000, "typical_volume": 11961950.0, "trend": 10.307831, "fair_value": 11.607511, "relative_strength": -30.901584, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.840051, "energy": 60.421216, "activity_lines": [ 7.688667, 7.841018, 8.580893, 9.344028 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.04, "volume": 11796000, "typical_volume": 11893370.0, "trend": 10.183831, "fair_value": 11.518442, "relative_strength": -34.268737, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.945714, "energy": 69.835946, "activity_lines": [ 7.445333, 7.662909, 8.363983, 9.1332 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }