{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4332a4e7-d70a-4b3d-9c04-99f568244fbb", "symbol": "HILB-B", "name": "Hilbert Group AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.021, "architecture_energy": 24.796, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 75.144, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.0, "rotation_up": 27.61, "upward_expansion": 20.23, "deceleration": 44.59, "rotation_down": 29.03, "downward_expansion": 58.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.196, 4.111091, 4.222286, 4.652022 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.25, "trend_reference": 5.289167, "distance_from_trend": -0.196471, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.088365, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.301947, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -49.530361, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.35994, "excess_performance": -0.421434, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.196471, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.225466, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.301947, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046737, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.495304, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091327, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.35994, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.884804, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 343491, "relative_activity": 0.293783, "balance": 2.884804, "dry_up": 0.534933, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.13276, "annualized_volatility": 0.702809, "from_high_reference": -0.714765, "from_low_reference": 0.19382 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.289167, "fair_value_reference": 6.088365, "structural_low": 3.56, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.005874, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.024129, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.595745, "worst_return": -0.348131, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.095799, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.113115, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.425532, "worst_return": -0.282353, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.217784, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.289646, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.047962, "worst_return": -0.483529, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.18125, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.215962, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.219331, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043732, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.306818, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.411943, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.725179, "energy": 35.278014, "activity_lines": [ 4.098667, 4.044909, 4.315476, 4.816043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.2, "volume": 291070, "typical_volume": 1231276.3, "trend": 5.422167, "fair_value": 6.089968, "relative_strength": -50.113733, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.015483, "energy": 30.163772, "activity_lines": [ 4.132667, 4.074, 4.259643, 4.727645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.25, "volume": 343491, "typical_volume": 1169201.45, "trend": 5.289167, "fair_value": 6.088365, "relative_strength": -49.530361, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.021393, "energy": 24.796356, "activity_lines": [ 4.196, 4.111091, 4.222286, 4.652022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }