{ "ticker": { "uuid": "433fc612-b296-42c0-9b75-f389de23a2ac", "symbol": "270810", "name": "Kb Kbstar Kosdaq150 Etf", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.724, "architecture_energy": 72.29, "architecture_maturity": 24.897, "architecture_confidence": 83.462, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.02, "rotation_up": 10.66, "upward_expansion": 15.36, "deceleration": 42.77, "rotation_down": 76.23, "downward_expansion": 91.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 12939.666667, 13873.727273, 15750.249033, 16772.323467 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 13535.0, "trend_reference": 17720.953516, "distance_from_trend": -0.236215, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14019.681422, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.034572, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.745236, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.265237, "excess_performance": -0.495066, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.236215, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011966, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.034572, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.478297, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.337452, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037758, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.265237, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.349644, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1921869, "relative_activity": 0.990436, "balance": 0.349644, "dry_up": 0.785894, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.138359, "annualized_volatility": 0.388699, "from_high_reference": -0.37147, "from_low_reference": 0.30395 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17720.953516, "fair_value_reference": 14019.681422, "structural_low": 10380.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.013846, "positive_rate": 0.56, "directional_follow_through": 0.44, "median_excess_return": -0.015472, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.119373, "worst_return": -0.136961, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.039432, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.016898, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.30956, "worst_return": -0.141697, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.048063, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008746, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.514408, "worst_return": -0.170807, 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"energy": 72.290152, "activity_lines": [ 12939.666667, 13873.727273, 15750.249033, 16772.323467 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }