{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4340f5c3-b986-4fdb-a6db-e2ac0a2332c2", "symbol": "CELU", "name": "Celularity Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.319, "architecture_energy": 34.207, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 58.592, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.26, "rotation_up": 25.56, "upward_expansion": 16.16, "deceleration": 65.75, "rotation_down": 40.41, "downward_expansion": 66.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.70638, 0.704776, 0.786001, 0.886877 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.7007, "trend_reference": 1.016143, "distance_from_trend": -0.310432, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.309515, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.696603, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -59.856977, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.461, "excess_performance": -0.648454, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.310432, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.223536, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.696603, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021072, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.59857, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017207, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.461, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.062501, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 166481, "relative_activity": 0.304822, "balance": 1.062501, "dry_up": 0.417999, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.250409, "annualized_volatility": 0.721131, "from_high_reference": -0.837425, "from_low_reference": 0.251027 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.016143, "fair_value_reference": 2.309515, "structural_low": 0.5601, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 46, "median_return": -0.049774, "positive_rate": 0.391304, "directional_follow_through": 0.608696, "median_excess_return": -0.061161, "regime_survival": 0.913043, "best_return": 1.203182, "worst_return": -0.457443, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.240741, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.147599, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 1.307692, "worst_return": -0.567085, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.354807, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.346312, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.336875, "worst_return": -0.76215, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.095385, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.433898, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034314, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.158654, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.721591, "active": false }, { "regime": 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0.905222, 1.001898 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.7404, "volume": 1249730, "typical_volume": 910678.6, "trend": 1.097267, "fair_value": 2.396135, "relative_strength": -62.994368, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.310325, "energy": 56.263849, "activity_lines": [ 0.683887, 0.745329, 0.878153, 0.977026 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.7803, "volume": 188515, "typical_volume": 911171.95, "trend": 1.074943, "fair_value": 2.365047, "relative_strength": -58.050622, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.852083, "energy": 48.810604, "activity_lines": [ 0.7143, 0.743822, 0.857787, 0.956577 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.75, "volume": 167317, "typical_volume": 914358.0, "trend": 1.055277, "fair_value": 2.344675, "relative_strength": -57.76566, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.744287, "energy": 41.522805, "activity_lines": [ 0.73012, 0.738616, 0.836676, 0.935612 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.6353, "volume": 390860, "typical_volume": 551486.55, "trend": 1.03612, "fair_value": 2.325536, "relative_strength": -63.127827, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.152237, "energy": 41.641309, "activity_lines": [ 0.70786, 0.713616, 0.806832, 0.908517 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.7007, "volume": 166481, "typical_volume": 546157.65, "trend": 1.016143, "fair_value": 2.309515, "relative_strength": -59.856977, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.31924, "energy": 34.207404, "activity_lines": [ 0.70638, 0.704776, 0.786001, 0.886877 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }