{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4340f5f8-1591-42f0-89b9-51c9bd4a17fb", "symbol": "FXZ", "name": "FIRST TRUST EXCH TRADED FUND 2 SHS FIRST TRUST MATERIALS ALPHADEX FUND", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 30.795, "architecture_energy": 16.014, "architecture_maturity": 24.88, "architecture_confidence": 86.22, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.51, "rotation_up": 28.74, "upward_expansion": 41.88, "deceleration": 82.81, "rotation_down": 32.11, "downward_expansion": 33.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 78.934667, 79.10304, 79.663213, 78.952721 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 82.95, "trend_reference": 77.798691, "distance_from_trend": 0.066213, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 64.188634, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.292285, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.366618, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.086773, "excess_performance": -0.038851, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.066213, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075419, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.292285, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001549, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.043666, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062006, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.086773, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.729503, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 335381, "relative_activity": 1.262434, "balance": 0.729503, "dry_up": 0.999831, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045698, "annualized_volatility": 0.239295, "from_high_reference": -0.033429, "from_low_reference": 0.470623 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 77.798691, "fair_value_reference": 64.188634, "structural_low": 69.100822, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.028598, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.012558, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.075786, "worst_return": -0.133285, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.023496, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.005234, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.167742, "worst_return": -0.152595, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.052345, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.00197, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.250181, "worst_return": -0.064039, 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79.779652, 78.572462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 75.58, "volume": 281018, "typical_volume": 271715.7, "trend": 76.630298, "fair_value": 63.883112, "relative_strength": -0.332925, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.406864, "energy": 18.510817, "activity_lines": [ 77.835021, 79.53097, 79.492892, 78.52828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 77.98, "volume": 279998, "typical_volume": 271150.15, "trend": 77.025275, "fair_value": 63.97061, "relative_strength": 3.24301, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.167711, "energy": 20.381921, "activity_lines": [ 77.506667, 79.1427, 79.449351, 78.615357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 76.68, "volume": 166072, "typical_volume": 274110.75, "trend": 77.375591, "fair_value": 64.056927, "relative_strength": 0.184403, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.686942, "energy": 25.661486, "activity_lines": [ 77.05, 78.525042, 79.264674, 78.593081 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 82.95, "volume": 335381, "typical_volume": 265662.1, "trend": 77.798691, "fair_value": 64.188634, "relative_strength": 4.366618, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.794849, "energy": 16.013972, "activity_lines": [ 78.934667, 79.10304, 79.663213, 78.952721 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }