{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4350f88b-27db-4994-8aa3-58209ab0693f", "symbol": "603906", "name": "Jiangsu Lopal Tech. Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 48.833, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.338, "architecture_energy": 62.014, "architecture_maturity": 15.32, "architecture_confidence": 75.189, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.99, "rotation_up": 16.89, "upward_expansion": 31.3, "deceleration": 46.24, "rotation_down": 69.77, "downward_expansion": 56.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.846, 21.032182, 23.476381, 23.368129 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.450001, "trend_reference": 22.655667, "distance_from_trend": -0.141495, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.999231, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.389362, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.998432, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.080556, "excess_performance": 0.123759, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.141495, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040412, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.389362, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.832654, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.039984, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.589376, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.080556, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.584642, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 116086029, "relative_activity": 0.603192, "balance": 0.584642, "dry_up": 0.752109, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.180858, "annualized_volatility": 0.808, "from_high_reference": -0.436558, "from_low_reference": 0.43861 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.655667, "fair_value_reference": 13.999231, "structural_low": 16.360001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.028403, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.04146, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.283333, "worst_return": -0.173056, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.234953, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.209193, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.489583, "worst_return": -0.319115, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.007559, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.070385, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.628125, "worst_return": -0.242978, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"2026-07-17", "close": 18.5, "volume": 165489192, "typical_volume": 182238644.5, "trend": 22.824333, "fair_value": 13.9725, "relative_strength": -3.5565, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -13.4282, "energy": 15.518114, "activity_lines": [ 22.976, 24.020909, 25.225095, 24.20286 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.24, "volume": 142450997, "typical_volume": 186464637.9, "trend": 22.769667, "fair_value": 13.971218, "relative_strength": -11.460775, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.862376, "energy": 53.238665, "activity_lines": [ 20.745333, 22.618, 24.526809, 23.842581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.639999, "volume": 154955593, "typical_volume": 190350850.55, "trend": 22.674333, "fair_value": 13.976282, "relative_strength": -5.038543, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.767499, "energy": 61.651425, "activity_lines": [ 19.418666, 21.661091, 23.962905, 23.57615 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.450001, "volume": 116086029, "typical_volume": 192452790.95, "trend": 22.655667, "fair_value": 13.999231, "relative_strength": -3.998432, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.337516, "energy": 62.014016, "activity_lines": [ 18.846, 21.032182, 23.476381, 23.368129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }