{ "ticker": { "uuid": "435242db-0731-4cea-b868-ee781a8e8837", "symbol": "TYCN", "name": "Tycoons Worldwide Group (Thailand) Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 58.056, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.602, "architecture_energy": 19.022, "architecture_maturity": 15.072, "architecture_confidence": 72.082, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.68, "rotation_up": 21.0, "upward_expansion": 7.98, "deceleration": 56.49, "rotation_down": 35.49, "downward_expansion": 64.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.679333, 1.679091, 1.684095, 1.693333 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.69, "trend_reference": 1.698667, "distance_from_trend": -0.005102, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.058718, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.179101, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.264547, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.018072, "excess_performance": -0.174253, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005102, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005464, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.179101, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01527, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.152645, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000721, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.018072, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.198617, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 83500, "relative_activity": 0.297312, "balance": 0.198617, "dry_up": 0.295709, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023213, "annualized_volatility": 0.150894, "from_high_reference": -0.091398, "from_low_reference": 0.097403 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.698667, "fair_value_reference": 2.058718, "structural_low": 1.64, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.008264, "positive_rate": 0.282051, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.013154, "regime_survival": 0.871795, "best_return": 0.10084, "worst_return": -0.132275, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.048525, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": -0.060346, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.12605, "worst_return": -0.142857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.085333, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.086114, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.092437, "worst_return": -0.183036, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.135714, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.18389, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": -0.04918, "worst_return": -0.268, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-06-17", "end": "2022-07-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.068182, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-07-08", "end": "2023-08-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.133333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-09-01", "end": "2023-09-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022901, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-09-15", "end": "2023-10-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021127, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2023-11-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035971, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022556, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053846, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.328, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.111702, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.060241, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.035088, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005952, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011976, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.46, "volume": 80100, "typical_volume": 72315.0, "trend": 2.592, "fair_value": 2.951346, "relative_strength": -4.510526, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.546048, "energy": 22.795933, "activity_lines": [ 2.429333, 2.397818, 2.447905, 2.509462 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 2.6, "volume": 95400, "typical_volume": 76745.0, "trend": 2.586667, "fair_value": 2.956154, "relative_strength": -1.51685, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.28889, "energy": 15.960177, "activity_lines": [ 2.490667, 2.435273, 2.456571, 2.509978 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 2.62, "volume": 99200, "typical_volume": 79150.0, "trend": 2.580667, "fair_value": 2.96109, "relative_strength": -0.648866, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 7.23085, "energy": 21.679508, "activity_lines": [ 2.545333, 2.474545, 2.467905, 2.512129 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 2.68, "volume": 5200, "typical_volume": 78590.0, "trend": 2.577333, "fair_value": 2.965833, "relative_strength": 2.719469, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance 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"relative_strength": -17.907297, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.701509, "energy": 16.720556, "activity_lines": [ 1.680667, 1.679273, 1.693714, 1.698667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.67, "volume": 231000, "typical_volume": 299855.0, "trend": 1.698667, "fair_value": 2.072692, "relative_strength": -18.825272, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.332109, "energy": 28.44586, "activity_lines": [ 1.677333, 1.677091, 1.690095, 1.696817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.68, "volume": 11300, "typical_volume": 292805.0, "trend": 1.697667, "fair_value": 2.068205, "relative_strength": -18.090264, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.145819, "energy": 27.172888, "activity_lines": [ 1.676667, 1.677455, 1.687857, 1.695613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.67, "volume": 6400, "typical_volume": 292770.0, "trend": 1.697667, "fair_value": 2.063654, "relative_strength": -17.241713, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.458144, "energy": 32.906393, "activity_lines": [ 1.674667, 1.676364, 1.68481, 1.693828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.69, "volume": 83500, "typical_volume": 280850.0, "trend": 1.698667, "fair_value": 2.058718, "relative_strength": -15.264547, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.602201, "energy": 19.021853, "activity_lines": [ 1.679333, 1.679091, 1.684095, 1.693333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }