{ "ticker": { "uuid": "43534dca-407e-48f1-8d71-3326f4ea7750", "symbol": "CVC", "name": "CVC Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -93.414, "architecture_energy": 76.85, "architecture_maturity": 29.364, "architecture_confidence": 80.172, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.06, "rotation_up": 17.01, "upward_expansion": 13.06, "deceleration": 47.37, "rotation_down": 76.37, "downward_expansion": 88.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.758, 1.791091, 1.872143, 1.925424 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.65, "trend_reference": 1.980902, "distance_from_trend": -0.167046, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.990279, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.17097, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.539318, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.232558, "excess_performance": -0.296264, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.167046, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033714, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.17097, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.160909, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.215393, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.196975, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.232558, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.201115, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11924, "relative_activity": 1.167017, "balance": 0.201115, "dry_up": 0.519868, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03986, "annualized_volatility": 0.3, "from_high_reference": -0.269103, "from_low_reference": 0.006098 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.980902, "fair_value_reference": 1.990279, "structural_low": 1.64, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.003094, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.134969, "worst_return": -0.141204, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.0625, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.066504, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.243243, "worst_return": -0.12037, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.05042, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.095178, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.364985, "worst_return": -0.219907, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.916251, "energy": 87.84488, "activity_lines": [ 1.839333, 1.896091, 1.970884, 1.997923 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.82, "volume": 25671, "typical_volume": 20661.1, "trend": 2.015924, "fair_value": 2.006723, "relative_strength": -10.011051, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.433481, "energy": 88.502237, "activity_lines": [ 1.826333, 1.873636, 1.952756, 1.984846 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.82, "volume": 4265, "typical_volume": 20230.6, "trend": 2.006553, "fair_value": 2.003043, "relative_strength": -9.716788, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.019296, "energy": 84.362722, "activity_lines": [ 1.825333, 1.856273, 1.935549, 1.972206 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.82, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 17826.2, "trend": 1.997182, "fair_value": 1.999424, "relative_strength": -9.242334, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.157823, "energy": 80.098592, "activity_lines": [ 1.826, 1.842182, 1.91954, 1.96017 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.8, "volume": 5058, "typical_volume": 18079.1, "trend": 1.991379, "fair_value": 1.995301, "relative_strength": -12.01499, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.035092, "energy": 64.641496, "activity_lines": [ 1.815333, 1.828455, 1.9025, 1.947449 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.65, "volume": 11924, "typical_volume": 10217.5, "trend": 1.980902, "fair_value": 1.990279, "relative_strength": -21.539318, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -93.413543, "energy": 76.850131, "activity_lines": [ 1.758, 1.791091, 1.872143, 1.925424 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }