{ "ticker": { "uuid": "435a6381-c95d-426c-b570-b9cfeddfdd83", "symbol": "MAX", "name": "MediaAlpha Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.123, "architecture_energy": 56.399, "architecture_maturity": 34.679, "architecture_confidence": 81.838, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.91, "rotation_up": 66.39, "upward_expansion": 82.03, "deceleration": 63.98, "rotation_down": 15.12, "downward_expansion": 8.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.168, 12.773636, 11.417095, 10.811462 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.4, "trend_reference": 10.238333, "distance_from_trend": 0.308807, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.335449, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.0863, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.800746, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.497207, "excess_performance": 0.371582, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.308807, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014597, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.0863, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.338046, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.088007, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.33828, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.497207, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.817958, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5002254, "relative_activity": 1.403529, "balance": 1.817958, "dry_up": 1.618154, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.110351, "annualized_volatility": 0.656954, "from_high_reference": -0.088435, "from_low_reference": 0.889986 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.238333, "fair_value_reference": 12.335449, "structural_low": 7.09, "invalidation": "A 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{ "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 10.13, "volume": 2489679, "typical_volume": 3663368.0, "trend": 10.110333, "fair_value": 12.178718, "relative_strength": -14.420267, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.851668, "energy": 12.171038, "activity_lines": [ 9.463333, 9.19, 9.220333, 9.467677 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 11.88, "volume": 4627337, "typical_volume": 3566115.95, "trend": 10.081, "fair_value": 12.188782, "relative_strength": 2.992354, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.187311, "energy": 35.730163, "activity_lines": [ 10.354, 9.677818, 9.480429, 9.581849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 13.43, "volume": 4117194, "typical_volume": 3519609.0, "trend": 10.093, "fair_value": 12.213077, "relative_strength": 13.815457, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 60.372211, "energy": 72.813927, "activity_lines": [ 11.535333, 10.414364, 9.87419, 9.797914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.37, "volume": 4201939, "typical_volume": 3479371.4, "trend": 10.105333, "fair_value": 12.236154, "relative_strength": 11.652412, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 55.285492, "energy": 79.431322, "activity_lines": [ 12.394667, 11.070364, 10.232429, 10.009333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.12, "volume": 6595279, "typical_volume": 3347834.1, "trend": 10.149333, "fair_value": 12.264038, "relative_strength": 19.412819, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.564231, "energy": 93.450488, "activity_lines": [ 13.217333, 11.785091, 10.635762, 10.268344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.13, "volume": 5774124, "typical_volume": 3366539.45, "trend": 10.164, "fair_value": 12.284295, "relative_strength": 11.627728, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.62959, "energy": 87.012579, "activity_lines": [ 13.398667, 12.228727, 10.924905, 10.460645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.38, "volume": 5697103, "typical_volume": 3485531.8, "trend": 10.178333, "fair_value": 12.306154, "relative_strength": 4.0426, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.874152, "energy": 75.460579, "activity_lines": [ 13.13, 12.443818, 11.128286, 10.603613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.4, "volume": 5002254, "typical_volume": 3564054.85, "trend": 10.238333, "fair_value": 12.335449, "relative_strength": 8.800746, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.123303, "energy": 56.398952, "activity_lines": [ 13.168, 12.773636, 11.417095, 10.811462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }