{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4363838f-0258-471b-a4ba-b42767f72a46", "symbol": "ITC", "name": "ITC Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.056, "architecture_energy": 42.983, "architecture_maturity": 71.219, "architecture_confidence": 95.1, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.24, "rotation_up": 19.57, "upward_expansion": 5.86, "deceleration": 47.28, "rotation_down": 55.08, "downward_expansion": 79.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 283.200006, 284.56637, 287.754782, 290.515694 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 286.100006, "trend_reference": 295.396901, "distance_from_trend": -0.031473, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 375.747337, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.238584, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.096213, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.09793, "excess_performance": -0.054221, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.031473, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091089, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.238584, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017659, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.130962, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009238, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.09793, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.552826, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 88429709, "relative_activity": 1.292145, "balance": 0.552826, "dry_up": 1.162169, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029395, "annualized_volatility": 0.167365, "from_high_reference": -0.297298, "from_low_reference": 0.040364 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 295.396901, "fair_value_reference": 375.747337, "structural_low": 275.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.004744, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.018269, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.046032, "worst_return": -0.179155, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.006185, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.040584, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.041392, "worst_return": -0.236414, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.006508, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.13013, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.008443, "worst_return": -0.235093, "sufficient": false }, { 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"typical_volume": 72666427.15, "trend": 301.731835, "fair_value": 377.845031, "relative_strength": -15.486378, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.141329, "energy": 45.365831, "activity_lines": [ 284.856673, 286.272561, 289.886605, 293.48942 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 283.450012, "volume": 78865399, "typical_volume": 72230393.2, "trend": 298.334986, "fair_value": 377.08448, "relative_strength": -12.1538, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.862688, "energy": 43.739996, "activity_lines": [ 283.680009, 285.399074, 289.09262, 292.309947 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 281.0, "volume": 88304782, "typical_volume": 71832630.25, "trend": 296.575942, "fair_value": 376.382505, "relative_strength": -14.552053, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.919308, "energy": 60.144198, "activity_lines": [ 282.290006, 284.403642, 288.151188, 291.191561 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 286.100006, "volume": 88429709, "typical_volume": 68436380.75, "trend": 295.396901, "fair_value": 375.747337, "relative_strength": -13.096213, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.056308, "energy": 42.982692, "activity_lines": [ 283.200006, 284.56637, 287.754782, 290.515694 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }