{ "ticker": { "uuid": "436672d3-06b3-4580-9516-b76d657a50ff", "symbol": "SCOP", "name": "WisdomTree Copper 1x Daily Short", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -76.814, "architecture_energy": 65.535, "architecture_maturity": 39.175, "architecture_confidence": 84.712, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.24, "rotation_up": 15.98, "upward_expansion": 14.66, "deceleration": 36.94, "rotation_down": 65.84, "downward_expansion": 83.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.743867, 8.888527, 8.926814, 9.076189 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.406, "trend_reference": 9.2342, "distance_from_trend": -0.089688, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.318526, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.368849, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.142368, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.111698, "excess_performance": -0.28259, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.089688, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05459, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.368849, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000275, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.291424, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002173, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.111698, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.816231, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10514, "relative_activity": 2.139449, "balance": 0.816231, "dry_up": 0.937815, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037583, "annualized_volatility": 0.238669, "from_high_reference": -0.339047, "from_low_reference": 0.022628 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.2342, "fair_value_reference": 13.318526, "structural_low": 8.291, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.009054, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.012271, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.18489, "worst_return": -0.153735, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.027827, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.067973, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.078486, "worst_return": -0.144672, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.028989, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.104636, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.31815, "worst_return": -0.2021, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.082914, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.107814, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.041041, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.081772, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.080212, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.023127, "active": 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"trend": 9.383767, "fair_value": 13.499878, "relative_strength": -24.78485, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.947372, "energy": 24.090023, "activity_lines": [ 9.1092, 8.984455, 9.090014, 9.211529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.098, "volume": 350, "typical_volume": 4484.35, "trend": 9.345367, "fair_value": 13.457455, "relative_strength": -23.095279, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.091624, "energy": 23.019876, "activity_lines": [ 9.1298, 9.022418, 9.074257, 9.193092 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.985, "volume": 3530, "typical_volume": 4567.95, "trend": 9.308267, "fair_value": 13.415103, "relative_strength": -23.444544, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.292139, "energy": 17.784171, "activity_lines": [ 9.086067, 9.034473, 9.047843, 9.169843 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.722, "volume": 4041, "typical_volume": 4558.05, "trend": 9.271367, "fair_value": 13.369833, "relative_strength": -25.236694, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.260659, "energy": 33.348745, "activity_lines": [ 8.9504, 8.989418, 8.999633, 9.132019 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.406, "volume": 10514, "typical_volume": 4914.35, "trend": 9.2342, "fair_value": 13.318526, "relative_strength": -29.142368, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.813957, "energy": 65.535148, "activity_lines": [ 8.743867, 8.888527, 8.926814, 9.076189 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }