{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4366ad1c-e988-4090-85d7-7673c3f951b4", "symbol": "SUGA", "name": "WisdomTree Sugar", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 91.764, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.755, "architecture_energy": 68.631, "architecture_maturity": 10.626, "architecture_confidence": 66.547, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.69, "rotation_up": 71.79, "upward_expansion": 86.94, "deceleration": 45.11, "rotation_down": 9.9, "downward_expansion": 13.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.672, 8.518491, 8.405081, 8.381755 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.219, "trend_reference": 8.3217, "distance_from_trend": 0.107827, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.713712, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.139514, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.371961, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.162694, "excess_performance": -0.008198, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.107827, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001681, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.139514, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.106271, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.07372, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10185, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.162694, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.098572, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 74696, "relative_activity": 0.746027, "balance": 2.098572, "dry_up": 0.392584, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038416, "annualized_volatility": 0.301485, "from_high_reference": -0.068694, "from_low_reference": 0.21191 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.3217, "fair_value_reference": 10.713712, "structural_low": 7.607, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.003115, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": 0.017042, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.135656, "worst_return": -0.091296, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.026684, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.070307, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.291446, "worst_return": -0.136079, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.040054, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.080428, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.229442, "worst_return": -0.197521, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.048929, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017361, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.043533, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001203, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.114192, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": 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"relative_strength": -13.928241, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.562837, "energy": 31.769952, "activity_lines": [ 8.4258, 8.340073, 8.328714, 8.317688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.36, "volume": 20481, "typical_volume": 103257.7, "trend": 8.2957, "fair_value": 10.73591, "relative_strength": -14.017271, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.421325, "energy": 32.023953, "activity_lines": [ 8.406133, 8.349982, 8.325705, 8.322187 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.219, "volume": 74696, "typical_volume": 100125.0, "trend": 8.3217, "fair_value": 10.713712, "relative_strength": -7.371961, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.754871, "energy": 68.630915, "activity_lines": [ 8.672, 8.518491, 8.405081, 8.381755 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }