{ "ticker": { "uuid": "43674e2b-f9e7-4e9d-81f3-db6507a9962e", "symbol": "AIRR", "name": "First Trust RBA American Industrial RenaissanceTM ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 55.882, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.512, "architecture_energy": 35.806, "architecture_maturity": 19.023, "architecture_confidence": 55.763, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.59, "rotation_up": 14.06, "upward_expansion": 22.08, "deceleration": 70.95, "rotation_down": 64.29, "downward_expansion": 38.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 2089.463997, 2141.872363, 2166.67286, 2143.175989 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2118.0, "trend_reference": 2104.562594, "distance_from_trend": 0.006385, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1656.402114, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.278675, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.812239, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.091018, "excess_performance": 0.145685, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006385, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063285, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.278675, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119929, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.058122, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060208, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.091018, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.381426, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 503, "relative_activity": 1.612438, "balance": 0.381426, "dry_up": 0.675589, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035633, "annualized_volatility": 0.239072, "from_high_reference": -0.083216, "from_low_reference": 0.28761 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2104.562594, "fair_value_reference": 1656.402114, "structural_low": 1931.935934, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.059245, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.094499, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043849, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.014066, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.070237, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-05-17", "close": 857.818481, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-05-24", "close": 857.818481, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-05-31", "close": 857.818481, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, 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"trend": 2095.360559, "fair_value": 1652.422822, "relative_strength": -0.921651, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.014671, "energy": 45.844475, "activity_lines": [ 2094.194661, 2154.475821, 2169.654315, 2141.71538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2118.0, "volume": 503, "typical_volume": 311.95, "trend": 2104.562594, "fair_value": 1656.402114, "relative_strength": 5.812239, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.512318, "energy": 35.806294, "activity_lines": [ 2089.463997, 2141.872363, 2166.67286, 2143.175989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }