{ "ticker": { "uuid": "43775770-1c78-41a8-8a74-a62ee21e7cdc", "symbol": "VHYD", "name": "Vanguard FTSE All-World High Dividend Yield UCITS ETF USD Distributing", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.017, "architecture_energy": 91.763, "architecture_maturity": 35.23, "architecture_confidence": 82.081, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.38, "rotation_up": 81.61, "upward_expansion": 99.26, "deceleration": 39.36, "rotation_down": 13.47, "downward_expansion": 21.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 92.779668, 91.933022, 90.63628, 89.57075 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 94.110001, "trend_reference": 88.334947, "distance_from_trend": 0.065377, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 70.286972, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.338939, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.411661, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.071668, "excess_performance": 0.020433, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.065377, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044777, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.338939, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030542, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.034117, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011369, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.071668, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.485203, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 127268, "relative_activity": 1.385844, "balance": 6.485203, "dry_up": 1.49506, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015036, "annualized_volatility": 0.118031, "from_high_reference": -0.01453, "from_low_reference": 0.268106 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 88.334947, "fair_value_reference": 70.286972, "structural_low": 81.495003, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.012268, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.631579, "median_excess_return": 0.005877, "regime_survival": 0.763158, "best_return": 0.060124, "worst_return": -0.073535, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.039574, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.006216, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.138075, "worst_return": -0.094689, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.045398, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.020136, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.18682, "worst_return": -0.04316, "sufficient": true }, { 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86.519446, "fair_value": 69.138026, "relative_strength": 2.984838, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.897502, "energy": 70.45333, "activity_lines": [ 90.432243, 89.895793, 88.683805, 87.930994 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 91.334999, "volume": 117443, "typical_volume": 91891.15, "trend": 86.887816, "fair_value": 69.364355, "relative_strength": 4.669131, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.22121, "energy": 69.610065, "activity_lines": [ 90.804712, 90.250607, 89.012178, 88.241675 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 91.334999, "volume": 114788, "typical_volume": 91686.5, "trend": 87.239752, "fair_value": 69.585514, "relative_strength": 3.545348, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.886521, "energy": 71.788417, "activity_lines": [ 91.041999, 90.546819, 89.331067, 88.52859 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 92.25, "volume": 138217, "typical_volume": 92766.2, "trend": 87.601626, "fair_value": 69.808994, "relative_strength": 3.158866, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.373093, "energy": 79.701102, "activity_lines": [ 91.541666, 90.950343, 89.731633, 88.851832 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 92.597504, "volume": 168918, "typical_volume": 92915.05, "trend": 87.962646, "fair_value": 70.041319, "relative_strength": 2.162656, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.805588, "energy": 81.423392, "activity_lines": [ 91.998834, 91.334971, 90.131744, 89.174147 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 94.110001, "volume": 127268, "typical_volume": 91834.3, "trend": 88.334947, "fair_value": 70.286972, "relative_strength": 3.411661, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.016849, "energy": 91.76307, "activity_lines": [ 92.779668, 91.933022, 90.63628, 89.57075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }