{ "ticker": { "uuid": "437caaaa-1fe8-4cc9-ac7d-da205d920ecc", "symbol": "SAND", "name": "Sandvik AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 53.515, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -17.801, "architecture_energy": 29.653, "architecture_maturity": 34.98, "architecture_confidence": 50.919, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.66, "rotation_up": 17.0, "upward_expansion": 17.91, "deceleration": 64.58, "rotation_down": 61.9, "downward_expansion": 40.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 357.779999, 369.556364, 374.567725, 372.967122 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 365.299988, "trend_reference": 368.377565, "distance_from_trend": -0.008354, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 245.991394, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.485011, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.242597, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.001891, "excess_performance": -0.063386, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008354, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086606, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.485011, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114079, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.002426, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.173295, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.001891, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.229911, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7973268, "relative_activity": 0.958936, "balance": 1.229911, "dry_up": 1.252526, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070058, "annualized_volatility": 0.392947, "from_high_reference": -0.115711, "from_low_reference": 0.580481 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 368.377565, "fair_value_reference": 245.991394, "structural_low": 316.576297, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.020496, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000446, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.148535, "worst_return": -0.168675, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0349, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.016125, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.1367, "worst_return": -0.191702, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.00635, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.02269, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.230654, "worst_return": -0.20895, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.497925, "energy": 12.446744, "activity_lines": [ 365.52667, 376.120003, 377.03538, 373.601716 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 356.0, "volume": 8749182, "typical_volume": 8554993.25, "trend": 366.550004, "fair_value": 244.880235, "relative_strength": -0.004512, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.689598, "energy": 27.450873, "activity_lines": [ 359.113336, 371.75273, 375.371468, 373.047768 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 365.299988, "volume": 7973268, "typical_volume": 8314699.25, "trend": 368.377565, "fair_value": 245.991394, "relative_strength": 0.242597, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.801115, "energy": 29.652648, "activity_lines": [ 357.779999, 369.556364, 374.567725, 372.967122 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }