{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "437d9642-0c22-40a1-938b-69d0a224920b",
    "symbol": "BILB34",
    "name": "Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A.",
    "exchange": "SAO",
    "country": "BR",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^BVSP",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 91.392,
    "architecture_energy": 95.475,
    "architecture_maturity": 20.747,
    "architecture_confidence": 79.156,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 8.86,
        "rotation_up": 88.21,
        "upward_expansion": 99.79,
        "deceleration": 39.07,
        "rotation_down": 8.84,
        "downward_expansion": 21.79
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        138.428664,
        133.723816,
        126.097678,
        122.191282
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 1.0
    },
    "latest_close": 144.619995,
    "trend_reference": 119.585747,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.209341,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 74.788251,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.933726,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 22.063009,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.187702,
    "excess_performance": 0.24475,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.209341,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.035985,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.933726,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.298681,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.22063,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.316416,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.187702,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 12.173077,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 93,
      "relative_activity": 0.417508,
      "balance": 12.173077,
      "dry_up": 0.501684,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.0381,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.278691,
      "from_high_reference": -0.011483,
      "from_low_reference": 0.548262
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 119.585747,
      "fair_value_reference": 74.788251,
      "structural_low": 102.849998,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 42,
        "median_return": 0.03152,
        "positive_rate": 0.642857,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.642857,
        "median_excess_return": 0.020558,
        "regime_survival": 0.785714,
        "best_return": 0.228235,
        "worst_return": -0.15715,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 16,
        "median_return": 0.094789,
        "positive_rate": 0.875,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.875,
        "median_excess_return": 0.095973,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": 0.340897,
        "worst_return": -0.101134,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.226681,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.157893,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.566637,
        "worst_return": -0.038369,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.683578,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.566334,
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        "best_return": 0.80682,
        "worst_return": -0.283957,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "start": "2024-07-26",
        "end": "2024-11-08",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.061989,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-04-25",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.022485,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2025-07-25",
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        "active": false
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.106409,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "return": -0.02859,
        "active": false
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      {
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        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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        "start": "2026-05-22",
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          114.526137,
          115.156968
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 109.120003,
        "volume": 9,
        "typical_volume": 171.55,
        "trend": 113.944106,
        "fair_value": 66.432244,
        "relative_strength": -11.3514,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -11.783848,
        "energy": 14.240903,
        "activity_lines": [
          112.033354,
          110.7,
          113.706661,
          114.867746
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 109.449997,
        "volume": 166,
        "typical_volume": 179.0,
        "trend": 114.338537,
        "fair_value": 66.940061,
        "relative_strength": -9.578641,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -14.196399,
        "energy": 12.543879,
        "activity_lines": [
          111.01,
          110.542817,
          112.966048,
          114.577803
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 107.029999,
        "volume": 18,
        "typical_volume": 161.0,
        "trend": 114.541147,
        "fair_value": 67.434535,
        "relative_strength": -8.220362,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -64.653652,
        "energy": 57.040189,
        "activity_lines": [
          109.21,
          110.056534,
          112.06568,
          114.106284
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 113.400002,
        "volume": 1550,
        "typical_volume": 234.95,
        "trend": 114.92598,
        "fair_value": 67.968285,
        "relative_strength": -2.277411,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -52.17795,
        "energy": 41.408211,
        "activity_lines": [
          110.126,
          110.768735,
          111.86268,
          114.032662
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 118.559998,
        "volume": 1241,
        "typical_volume": 289.4,
        "trend": 115.43188,
        "fair_value": 68.544014,
        "relative_strength": 3.347457,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -7.556934,
        "energy": 6.366585,
        "activity_lines": [
          113.033999,
          112.289139,
          112.212078,
          114.267115
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 114.360001,
        "volume": 30,
        "typical_volume": 286.55,
        "trend": 115.741524,
        "fair_value": 69.085364,
        "relative_strength": 2.260001,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -15.317121,
        "energy": 14.081177,
        "activity_lines": [
          113.983333,
          112.804551,
          112.1864,
          114.197961
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 118.18,
        "volume": 16,
        "typical_volume": 273.5,
        "trend": 116.010359,
        "fair_value": 69.642634,
        "relative_strength": 4.044202,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": 4.505761,
        "energy": 20.850913,
        "activity_lines": [
          115.856667,
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          114.355283
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 128.830002,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 262.1,
        "trend": 116.730786,
        "fair_value": 70.274403,
        "relative_strength": 14.513763,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 46.771963,
        "energy": 57.860997,
        "activity_lines": [
          120.698001,
          116.641273,
          114.056715,
          115.182356
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 126.879997,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 252.1,
        "trend": 117.203112,
        "fair_value": 70.87854,
        "relative_strength": 9.222355,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 41.844901,
        "energy": 67.062324,
        "activity_lines": [
          123.436,
          118.863272,
          115.341341,
          115.837144
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 126.879997,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 237.05,
        "trend": 117.572665,
        "fair_value": 71.489353,
        "relative_strength": 8.152036,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 48.068151,
        "energy": 74.129423,
        "activity_lines": [
          125.275332,
          120.914363,
          116.601608,
          116.461459
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 131.169998,
        "volume": 123,
        "typical_volume": 241.55,
        "trend": 117.975618,
        "fair_value": 72.116761,
        "relative_strength": 9.080323,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 54.96789,
        "energy": 80.001722,
        "activity_lines": [
          127.989998,
          123.441817,
          118.215237,
          117.338707
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 131.0,
        "volume": 212,
        "typical_volume": 247.55,
        "trend": 118.198908,
        "fair_value": 72.745305,
        "relative_strength": 11.041448,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 48.12291,
        "energy": 78.04319,
        "activity_lines": [
          129.527332,
          125.537454,
          119.749118,
          118.178989
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 132.080002,
        "volume": 22,
        "typical_volume": 236.5,
        "trend": 118.399007,
        "fair_value": 73.377656,
        "relative_strength": 11.275917,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 76.109497,
        "energy": 88.87279,
        "activity_lines": [
          130.57,
          127.437636,
          121.312282,
          119.074544
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 140.979996,
        "volume": 120,
        "typical_volume": 232.75,
        "trend": 118.891545,
        "fair_value": 74.07596,
        "relative_strength": 15.741916,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 91.591432,
        "energy": 94.366643,
        "activity_lines": [
          134.362665,
          130.500544,
          123.614335,
          120.531382
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 144.619995,
        "volume": 93,
        "typical_volume": 222.75,
        "trend": 119.585747,
        "fair_value": 74.788251,
        "relative_strength": 22.063009,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 91.392141,
        "energy": 95.475261,
        "activity_lines": [
          138.428664,
          133.723816,
          126.097678,
          122.191282
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}