{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4386e597-20cc-4b32-9ee9-e8004782c937", "symbol": "00652", "name": "Fubon NIFTY ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 77.44, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 10.96, "architecture_energy": 20.217, "architecture_maturity": 11.662, "architecture_confidence": 49.975, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.38, "rotation_up": 40.7, "upward_expansion": 34.06, "deceleration": 40.04, "rotation_down": 17.85, "downward_expansion": 44.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.581999, 33.324363, 33.017, 33.233054 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 34.139999, "trend_reference": 33.890667, "distance_from_trend": 0.007357, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 35.98609, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.0513, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -29.897813, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.04929, "excess_performance": -0.428602, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007357, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040541, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.0513, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021726, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.298978, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095064, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.04929, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.79994, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2050221, "relative_activity": 1.204128, "balance": 0.79994, "dry_up": 0.992256, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023185, "annualized_volatility": 0.190529, "from_high_reference": -0.100395, "from_low_reference": 0.086915 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.890667, "fair_value_reference": 35.98609, "structural_low": 31.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.008429, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.032254, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.015431, "worst_return": -0.057172, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.009675, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.050655, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.092586, "worst_return": -0.055482, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.022984, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.17407, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.090238, "worst_return": -0.13025, "sufficient": false }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.017673, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.053614, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028432, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01429, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005395, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.484539, "energy": 27.379526, "activity_lines": [ 33.112001, 32.75291, 32.810667, 33.420753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 33.349998, "volume": 1228078, "typical_volume": 1944431.6, "trend": 34.283, "fair_value": 35.967628, "relative_strength": -31.706823, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.597413, "energy": 22.229114, "activity_lines": [ 33.266666, 32.883273, 32.833572, 33.352624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.549999, "volume": 1159067, "typical_volume": 1834841.1, "trend": 34.124333, "fair_value": 35.97032, "relative_strength": -33.98553, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.164572, "energy": 20.263097, "activity_lines": [ 33.049999, 32.865818, 32.794381, 33.240817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.869999, "volume": 2320537, "typical_volume": 1785781.25, "trend": 34.006, "fair_value": 35.976538, "relative_strength": -29.580694, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 4.099682, "energy": 12.134985, "activity_lines": [ 33.298666, 33.084909, 32.893714, 33.224409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.139999, "volume": 2050221, "typical_volume": 1702660.9, "trend": 33.890667, "fair_value": 35.98609, "relative_strength": -29.897813, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 10.959929, "energy": 20.217177, "activity_lines": [ 33.581999, 33.324363, 33.017, 33.233054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }