{ "ticker": { "uuid": "438b50bf-4025-4d80-81a7-8466e74f8e71", "symbol": "XMV", "name": "iShares MSCI Min Vol Canada Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 72.152, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.889, "architecture_energy": 67.347, "architecture_maturity": 46.255, "architecture_confidence": 69.606, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.14, "rotation_up": 69.64, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 61.63, "rotation_down": 18.86, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 61.433333, 61.033105, 59.998351, 59.11367 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 61.43, "trend_reference": 57.974241, "distance_from_trend": 0.059609, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 48.568388, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.264814, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.393149, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.113166, "excess_performance": -0.007255, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.059609, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029719, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.264814, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0321, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.033931, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025421, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.113166, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.845311, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24800, "relative_activity": 0.770545, "balance": 0.845311, "dry_up": 0.716949, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012909, "annualized_volatility": 0.087888, "from_high_reference": -0.013965, "from_low_reference": 0.187738 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 57.974241, "fair_value_reference": 48.568388, "structural_low": 54.628204, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.012176, "positive_rate": 0.736842, "directional_follow_through": 0.736842, "median_excess_return": 0.000989, "regime_survival": 0.763158, "best_return": 0.047872, "worst_return": -0.064556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.033941, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": 0.001458, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.120824, "worst_return": -0.092666, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.051916, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.00564, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.161856, "worst_return": -0.079087, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"energy": 95.235809, "activity_lines": [ 60.875606, 60.236445, 59.138956, 58.360772 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 61.439999, "volume": 18600, "typical_volume": 31640.0, "trend": 57.540989, "fair_value": 48.267691, "relative_strength": -0.983517, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.740338, "energy": 90.624778, "activity_lines": [ 61.154, 60.562166, 59.448003, 58.62221 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 61.5, "volume": 30800, "typical_volume": 31845.0, "trend": 57.771374, "fair_value": 48.419843, "relative_strength": -0.309704, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.60048, "energy": 76.978008, "activity_lines": [ 61.344667, 60.827463, 59.739416, 58.87763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 61.43, "volume": 24800, "typical_volume": 32185.0, "trend": 57.974241, "fair_value": 48.568388, "relative_strength": -3.393149, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.888925, "energy": 67.347323, "activity_lines": [ 61.433333, 61.033105, 59.998351, 59.11367 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }