{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4391178c-d134-4c6f-bfc0-00ce75d892cd", "symbol": "SCHD", "name": "SCHWAB STRATEGIC TR US DIVIDEND EQUITY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.883, "architecture_energy": 81.18, "architecture_maturity": 36.226, "architecture_confidence": 76.733, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.67, "rotation_up": 80.89, "upward_expansion": 95.58, "deceleration": 39.87, "rotation_down": 11.14, "downward_expansion": 17.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.431333, 32.97494, 32.471603, 32.048359 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 33.9, "trend_reference": 31.452385, "distance_from_trend": 0.07782, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.348658, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.286593, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.538758, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.086278, "excess_performance": -0.039347, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.07782, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061769, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.286593, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054155, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.025388, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023703, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.086278, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.746668, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 118477674, "relative_activity": 1.140039, "balance": 3.746668, "dry_up": 1.108138, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024646, "annualized_volatility": 0.097123, "from_high_reference": -0.00993, "from_low_reference": 0.311934 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.452385, "fair_value_reference": 26.348658, "structural_low": 29.977829, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.011395, "positive_rate": 0.633333, "directional_follow_through": 0.633333, "median_excess_return": -0.003141, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.102277, "worst_return": -0.083214, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.015267, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.036649, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.112717, "worst_return": -0.053282, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.040114, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.028221, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.148538, "worst_return": -0.048306, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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} ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }