{ "ticker": { "uuid": "43963cae-eed4-4368-9b83-84503e76434d", "symbol": "BEVIDESB", "name": "Farmacias Benavides, S.A.B. de C.V.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 72.104, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.997, "architecture_energy": 68.093, "architecture_maturity": 25.187, "architecture_confidence": 66.522, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.59, "rotation_up": 9.72, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 56.39, "rotation_down": 74.11, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.0, 25.109091, 25.433333, 25.593548 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 25.0, "trend_reference": 25.766667, "distance_from_trend": -0.029754, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.306667, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.120741, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.691134, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.038462, "excess_performance": 0.016205, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.029754, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008974, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.120741, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110196, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.046911, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035021, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.038462, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": null, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": null, "dry_up": 5.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003077, "annualized_volatility": 0.054389, "from_high_reference": -0.038462, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.766667, "fair_value_reference": 22.306667, "structural_low": 25.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.002217, "positive_rate": 0.157895, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.014314, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.691686, "worst_return": -0.239249, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.013304, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.01402, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.910112, "worst_return": -0.244186, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.077615, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.172966, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.884701, "worst_return": -0.35, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.026708, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004618, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.134021, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false 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25.812903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 25.866667, "fair_value": 22.114359, "relative_strength": -5.105356, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.881848, "energy": 95.058646, "activity_lines": [ 25.066667, 25.381818, 25.647619, 25.754839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.0, "volume": 234, "typical_volume": 11.7, "trend": 25.833333, "fair_value": 22.178462, "relative_strength": -4.470017, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.33332, "energy": 88.566636, "activity_lines": [ 25.0, 25.272727, 25.571429, 25.698925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 11.7, "trend": 25.8, "fair_value": 22.242564, "relative_strength": -4.954832, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.333088, "energy": 88.564145, "activity_lines": [ 25.0, 25.181818, 25.5, 25.645161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 11.7, "trend": 25.766667, "fair_value": 22.306667, "relative_strength": -4.691134, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.997197, "energy": 68.093185, "activity_lines": [ 25.0, 25.109091, 25.433333, 25.593548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }