{ "ticker": { "uuid": "43a0e645-6bc0-4527-8217-6ed3bd1c3569", "symbol": "B", "name": "Begistics Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.946, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.201, "architecture_energy": 43.837, "architecture_maturity": 35.391, "architecture_confidence": 94.663, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.55, "rotation_up": 21.21, "upward_expansion": 15.25, "deceleration": 31.74, "rotation_down": 55.09, "downward_expansion": 79.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.033333, 0.034909, 0.03619, 0.037118 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.03, "trend_reference": 0.038333, "distance_from_trend": -0.217391, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.075385, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.602041, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -36.372788, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.25, "excess_performance": -0.442325, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.217391, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041667, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.602041, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076972, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.363728, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024137, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.25, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.733733, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30948500, "relative_activity": 3.542319, "balance": 0.733733, "dry_up": 1.144073, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.333333, "annualized_volatility": 1.297114, "from_high_reference": -0.5, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.038333, "fair_value_reference": 0.075385, "structural_low": 0.03, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.047619, "directional_follow_through": 0.047619, "median_excess_return": -0.055247, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.2, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.191322, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.333333, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.375572, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": -0.2, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.666667, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.660244, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.4, "worst_return": -0.727118, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-02-25", "end": "2022-09-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.273973, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-09-23", "end": "2022-11-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.16, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-11-25", "end": "2023-01-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024391, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-01-27", "end": "2023-02-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.074999, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-02-17", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.733774, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.222222, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.285714, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { 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"gate": "down", "direction": -11.675442, "energy": 6.481772, "activity_lines": [ 0.038667, 0.038545, 0.038238, 0.038774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.03, "volume": 3869900, "typical_volume": 10274940.0, "trend": 0.039, "fair_value": 0.077821, "relative_strength": -39.725235, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.474244, "energy": 22.148769, "activity_lines": [ 0.036, 0.037091, 0.037429, 0.038172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.03, "volume": 2354100, "typical_volume": 7792350.0, "trend": 0.038667, "fair_value": 0.077051, "relative_strength": -39.014465, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.699785, "energy": 36.889142, "activity_lines": [ 0.034, 0.035636, 0.036667, 0.037591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.04, "volume": 2809600, "typical_volume": 7602990.0, "trend": 0.038667, "fair_value": 0.076154, "relative_strength": -16.890514, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.990722, "energy": 25.906473, "activity_lines": [ 0.035333, 0.036182, 0.036905, 0.037677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.03, "volume": 30948500, "typical_volume": 8736790.0, "trend": 0.038333, "fair_value": 0.075385, "relative_strength": -36.372788, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.200673, "energy": 43.837466, "activity_lines": [ 0.033333, 0.034909, 0.03619, 0.037118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }