{ "ticker": { "uuid": "43a30c82-89ca-40f6-bffe-d33edb99f69a", "symbol": "CNEQ", "name": "THE ALGER ETF TRUST CONCENTRATED EQUITY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 40.695, "architecture_energy": 22.144, "architecture_maturity": 63.47, "architecture_confidence": 86.122, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.54, "rotation_up": 28.07, "upward_expansion": 57.01, "deceleration": 88.11, "rotation_down": 28.89, "downward_expansion": 18.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.953333, 39.258364, 39.031286, 37.789462 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 39.94, "trend_reference": 36.320333, "distance_from_trend": 0.09966, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.909736, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.381541, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.892986, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.207011, "excess_performance": 0.081386, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.09966, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04891, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.381541, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012598, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.00893, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023287, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.207011, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.410625, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 538169, "relative_activity": 0.604098, "balance": 1.410625, "dry_up": 0.859542, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05999, "annualized_volatility": 0.260503, "from_high_reference": -0.052432, "from_low_reference": 0.355277 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.320333, "fair_value_reference": 28.909736, "structural_low": 29.47, "invalidation": "A 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"positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021984, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.012396, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02291, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003724, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", 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35.267946, "fair_value": 28.288945, "relative_strength": 10.553792, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.139154, "energy": 65.201812, "activity_lines": [ 40.314, 39.58, 37.269048, 36.232193 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 39.54, "volume": 628056, "typical_volume": 1009230.65, "trend": 35.433424, "fair_value": 28.385108, "relative_strength": 6.793156, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.273218, "energy": 50.526237, "activity_lines": [ 40.088, 39.716182, 37.64481, 36.507809 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 39.69, "volume": 884082, "typical_volume": 1019201.75, "trend": 35.593956, "fair_value": 28.480912, "relative_strength": 4.683754, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.879418, "energy": 46.77566, "activity_lines": [ 39.944, 39.822909, 38.004143, 36.782427 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 40.57, "volume": 810720, "typical_volume": 1046706.6, "trend": 35.812667, "fair_value": 28.582501, "relative_strength": 5.305875, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.845643, "energy": 50.179035, "activity_lines": [ 40.192667, 40.036909, 38.415238, 37.103462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.32, "volume": 679267, "typical_volume": 1069629.6, "trend": 35.939, "fair_value": 28.663647, "relative_strength": 0.917998, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.802685, "energy": 32.142363, "activity_lines": [ 39.590667, 39.772, 38.578905, 37.265226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.89, "volume": 1174534, "typical_volume": 1106503.3, "trend": 36.033333, "fair_value": 28.739897, "relative_strength": 0.271644, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.537578, "energy": 23.184412, "activity_lines": [ 38.890667, 39.420364, 38.675524, 37.391097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.43, "volume": 670969, "typical_volume": 887496.6, "trend": 36.162, "fair_value": 28.819324, "relative_strength": 0.526254, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.273263, "energy": 19.313122, "activity_lines": [ 38.633333, 39.187636, 38.796571, 37.54572 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.94, "volume": 538169, "typical_volume": 890863.55, "trend": 36.320333, "fair_value": 28.909736, "relative_strength": 0.892986, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.694539, "energy": 22.143734, "activity_lines": [ 38.953333, 39.258364, 39.031286, 37.789462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }