{ "ticker": { "uuid": "43a38fb3-3b6d-418b-b2f0-89676bf9512d", "symbol": "SEIX", "name": "VIRTUS ETF TRUST II VIRTUS SEIX SENIOR LOAN ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.389, "architecture_energy": 87.092, "architecture_maturity": 5.118, "architecture_confidence": 62.864, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.4, "rotation_up": 81.08, "upward_expansion": 95.13, "deceleration": 42.09, "rotation_down": 10.09, "downward_expansion": 19.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.18467, 23.127528, 23.088107, 23.023299 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 23.26, "trend_reference": 22.939415, "distance_from_trend": 0.013975, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.492, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.082263, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.052213, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.02465, "excess_performance": -0.100975, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013975, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006294, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.082263, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01049, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.090522, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00092, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.02465, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.447279, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 561913, "relative_activity": 1.515112, "balance": 1.447279, "dry_up": 1.078776, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.00377, "annualized_volatility": 0.016962, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.044804 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.939415, "fair_value_reference": 21.492, "structural_low": 22.536209, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 51, "median_return": 0.004882, "positive_rate": 0.843137, "directional_follow_through": 0.843137, "median_excess_return": -0.012683, "regime_survival": 0.901961, "best_return": 0.019381, "worst_return": -0.011075, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.014765, "positive_rate": 0.941176, "directional_follow_through": 0.941176, "median_excess_return": -0.025615, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.045941, "worst_return": -0.005685, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.034771, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.052978, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.072303, "worst_return": -0.061817, 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{ "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 23.057897, "volume": 286424, "typical_volume": 388525.05, "trend": 22.88455, "fair_value": 21.385305, "relative_strength": -8.667281, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.132355, "energy": 25.854083, "activity_lines": [ 23.028695, 23.046441, 23.010998, 22.952221 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.137475, "volume": 254322, "typical_volume": 369829.1, "trend": 22.898576, "fair_value": 21.412281, "relative_strength": -6.661975, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.160776, "energy": 42.595517, "activity_lines": [ 23.063136, 23.060534, 23.029579, 22.968539 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.16, "volume": 581176, "typical_volume": 363821.5, "trend": 22.911734, "fair_value": 21.439016, "relative_strength": -5.804212, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.179144, "energy": 54.76805, "activity_lines": [ 23.101878, 23.077798, 23.047865, 22.985405 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.1643, "volume": 202941, "typical_volume": 353306.25, "trend": 22.925198, "fair_value": 21.465317, "relative_strength": -6.531063, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.169379, "energy": 71.714671, "activity_lines": [ 23.133192, 23.09469, 23.064386, 23.001699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.26, "volume": 561913, "typical_volume": 370872.3, "trend": 22.939415, "fair_value": 21.492, "relative_strength": -9.052213, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.388642, "energy": 87.092301, "activity_lines": [ 23.18467, 23.127528, 23.088107, 23.023299 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }