{ "ticker": { "uuid": "43ab0d1f-7cba-4ae6-9bc6-7debe5e4a35c", "symbol": "ORA", "name": "Orange S.A.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -30.125, "architecture_energy": 27.588, "architecture_maturity": 19.555, "architecture_confidence": 75.941, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.32, "rotation_up": 25.49, "upward_expansion": 10.71, "deceleration": 62.24, "rotation_down": 49.77, "downward_expansion": 50.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.309334, 16.406182, 16.786065, 16.9353 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 16.275, "trend_reference": 16.90972, "distance_from_trend": -0.037536, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.882069, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.369711, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.359436, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.016913, "excess_performance": -0.19116, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.037536, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055899, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.369711, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176262, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.143594, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.159601, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.016913, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.912725, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1301, "relative_activity": 2.337196, "balance": 0.912725, "dry_up": 2.01518, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044554, "annualized_volatility": 0.22155, "from_high_reference": -0.108574, "from_low_reference": 0.264393 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.90972, "fair_value_reference": 11.882069, "structural_low": 15.65, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.029125, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.024302, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.07811, "worst_return": -0.052829, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.016665, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.037399, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.141555, "worst_return": -0.059748, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.069492, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.033327, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.079824, "worst_return": 0.004691, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005894, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021497, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040034, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.067706, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.304524, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.001087, 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.705147, "energy": 55.4125, "activity_lines": [ 16.387, 16.821465, 17.092572, 17.031389 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.545, "volume": 1413, "typical_volume": 471.9, "trend": 16.701053, "fair_value": 11.738485, "relative_strength": -9.760019, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.367982, "energy": 58.065235, "activity_lines": [ 16.330334, 16.718336, 17.024255, 17.026999 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.165001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 402.95, "trend": 16.77222, "fair_value": 11.784732, "relative_strength": -12.877662, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.475169, "energy": 63.513101, "activity_lines": [ 16.229, 16.561027, 16.926699, 16.992415 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.455, "volume": 1773, "typical_volume": 491.6, "trend": 16.843053, "fair_value": 11.834335, "relative_strength": -11.068574, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.916604, "energy": 43.198282, "activity_lines": [ 16.279667, 16.488104, 16.861668, 16.971949 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.275, "volume": 1301, "typical_volume": 556.65, "trend": 16.90972, "fair_value": 11.882069, "relative_strength": -14.359436, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.124795, "energy": 27.588018, "activity_lines": [ 16.309334, 16.406182, 16.786065, 16.9353 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }