{ "ticker": { "uuid": "43b18cc5-c761-4c85-b7f2-be4142f8bafe", "symbol": "VOW", "name": "Vow ASA", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.12, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.097, "architecture_energy": 34.091, "architecture_maturity": 28.997, "architecture_confidence": 84.937, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.19, "rotation_up": 20.76, "upward_expansion": 3.83, "deceleration": 53.93, "rotation_down": 47.28, "downward_expansion": 74.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.188667, 2.196727, 2.283857, 2.344806 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.21, "trend_reference": 2.437667, "distance_from_trend": -0.093395, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.724733, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.532249, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.793649, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.146718, "excess_performance": -0.271712, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.093395, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018666, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.532249, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048104, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.137936, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069095, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.146718, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.824472, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3115332, "relative_activity": 0.853446, "balance": 1.824472, "dry_up": 0.735549, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100592, "annualized_volatility": 0.38146, "from_high_reference": -0.368571, "from_low_reference": 0.524138 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.437667, "fair_value_reference": 4.724733, "structural_low": 2.08, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.025806, "positive_rate": 0.358974, "directional_follow_through": 0.641026, "median_excess_return": -0.048276, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.54484, "worst_return": -0.293939, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.066154, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.130532, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.649263, "worst_return": -0.576677, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.151233, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.192364, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.722973, "worst_return": -0.704153, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.241114, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.304386, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017094, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.271499, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.125217, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": 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2.25, "volume": 3208281, "typical_volume": 4604880.05, "trend": 2.495167, "fair_value": 5.078451, "relative_strength": -7.790477, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.058356, "energy": 53.265804, "activity_lines": [ 2.221, 2.284273, 2.359929, 2.420946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.175, "volume": 3669619, "typical_volume": 4166859.6, "trend": 2.483833, "fair_value": 4.995342, "relative_strength": -11.817716, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.963703, "energy": 44.220771, "activity_lines": [ 2.209, 2.253273, 2.336667, 2.40029 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.16, "volume": 2941505, "typical_volume": 4058021.25, "trend": 2.469833, "fair_value": 4.89829, "relative_strength": -14.727153, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.922296, "energy": 37.965599, "activity_lines": [ 2.191667, 2.223273, 2.31519, 2.379398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.175, "volume": 1013427, "typical_volume": 3716277.3, "trend": 2.451333, "fair_value": 4.805309, "relative_strength": -14.642416, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.256601, "energy": 36.226255, "activity_lines": [ 2.184667, 2.201091, 2.297262, 2.360376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.21, "volume": 3115332, "typical_volume": 3650296.85, "trend": 2.437667, "fair_value": 4.724733, "relative_strength": -13.793649, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.09718, "energy": 34.090564, "activity_lines": [ 2.188667, 2.196727, 2.283857, 2.344806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }