{ "ticker": { "uuid": "43b25d17-6ad0-486a-b71b-389428547ed3", "symbol": "IEUR", "name": "ISHARES TRUST CORE MSCI EUROPE", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 82.779, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.113, "architecture_energy": 73.941, "architecture_maturity": 35.718, "architecture_confidence": 75.647, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.91, "rotation_up": 71.08, "upward_expansion": 90.97, "deceleration": 43.31, "rotation_down": 15.62, "downward_expansion": 15.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 76.565333, 75.841768, 74.846675, 73.929409 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 78.34, "trend_reference": 73.113845, "distance_from_trend": 0.07148, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 59.355103, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.319853, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.814846, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.065564, "excess_performance": -0.060061, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.07148, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033326, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.319853, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029874, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.008148, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02197, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.065564, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.910313, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3776748, "relative_activity": 0.781821, "balance": 0.910313, "dry_up": 0.874835, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024615, "annualized_volatility": 0.180141, "from_high_reference": -0.002673, "from_low_reference": 0.235252 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 73.113845, "fair_value_reference": 59.355103, "structural_low": 65.788585, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.00929, "positive_rate": 0.542857, "directional_follow_through": 0.542857, "median_excess_return": -0.006236, "regime_survival": 0.685714, "best_return": 0.093895, "worst_return": -0.070383, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.017674, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.032045, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.108374, "worst_return": -0.126688, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.022502, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.051061, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.133365, "worst_return": -0.05659, "sufficient": true }, { 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"close": 76.69, "volume": 6621830, "typical_volume": 5205289.25, "trend": 72.878374, "fair_value": 59.159378, "relative_strength": 0.501078, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.95377, "energy": 54.187993, "activity_lines": [ 75.631333, 75.207708, 74.35141, 73.577046 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 78.34, "volume": 3776748, "typical_volume": 4830708.0, "trend": 73.113845, "fair_value": 59.355103, "relative_strength": -0.814846, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.11305, "energy": 73.940986, "activity_lines": [ 76.565333, 75.841768, 74.846675, 73.929409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }