{ "ticker": { "uuid": "43bbacda-2ff1-4ab4-bf21-5305f3252928", "symbol": "300319", "name": "Shenzhen Microgate Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 13.519, "architecture_energy": 29.674, "architecture_maturity": 68.269, "architecture_confidence": 75.102, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.43, "rotation_up": 15.28, "upward_expansion": 48.5, "deceleration": 94.0, "rotation_down": 50.58, "downward_expansion": 30.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.01, 19.174854, 18.43584, 17.077308 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 17.25, "trend_reference": 15.458906, "distance_from_trend": 0.115862, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.289566, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.527959, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 19.661375, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.407015, "excess_performance": 0.399615, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.115862, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.240914, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.527959, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.271686, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.196614, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.306956, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.407015, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.263129, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 538424744, "relative_activity": 1.831156, "balance": 1.263129, "dry_up": 1.624955, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.250147, "annualized_volatility": 1.070405, "from_high_reference": -0.481982, "from_low_reference": 0.585478 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.458906, "fair_value_reference": 11.289566, "structural_low": 10.88, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.06085, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.040392, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.454768, "worst_return": -0.154286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.017598, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.043891, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.408726, "worst_return": -0.117524, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.082021, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.00141, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.494834, "worst_return": -0.159869, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.091662, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.089091, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032718, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00161, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.088144, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", 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"modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.594077, "energy": 69.714886, "activity_lines": [ 25.061334, 22.763037, 18.769072, 16.957155 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.18, "volume": 392513853, "typical_volume": 259054583.05, "trend": 15.088573, "fair_value": 11.15796, "relative_strength": 17.725498, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.529125, "energy": 47.363271, "activity_lines": [ 22.112, 22.031893, 18.754229, 17.036774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.84, "volume": 493927528, "typical_volume": 263342332.3, "trend": 15.199573, "fair_value": 11.199744, "relative_strength": 7.297532, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.106257, "energy": 23.584568, "activity_lines": [ 18.942667, 21.000012, 18.598909, 17.020737 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.1, "volume": 486310913, "typical_volume": 276530177.2, "trend": 15.273573, "fair_value": 11.233588, "relative_strength": 3.311037, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.325076, "energy": 27.702515, "activity_lines": [ 16.388, 19.801391, 18.36897, 16.949797 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.25, "volume": 538424744, "typical_volume": 294035364.3, "trend": 15.458906, "fair_value": 11.289566, "relative_strength": 19.661375, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.518905, "energy": 29.673519, "activity_lines": [ 16.01, 19.174854, 18.43584, 17.077308 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }