{ "ticker": { "uuid": "43be367d-7276-4894-9da4-7a6d39a7e334", "symbol": "EGO", "name": "Eldorado Gold Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 50.431, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 0.146, "architecture_energy": 2.565, "architecture_maturity": 43.971, "architecture_confidence": 80.642, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 69.76, "rotation_up": 24.33, "upward_expansion": 24.69, "deceleration": 46.86, "rotation_down": 26.57, "downward_expansion": 51.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.809333, 32.126182, 32.062684, 33.172825 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 37.92, "trend_reference": 35.392136, "distance_from_trend": 0.071424, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.986217, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.8069, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.215106, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.024428, "excess_performance": -0.150053, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.071424, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007047, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.8069, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029412, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.032151, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01016, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.024428, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.924369, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15700126, "relative_activity": 1.088679, "balance": 0.924369, "dry_up": 0.861988, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117392, "annualized_volatility": 0.748912, "from_high_reference": -0.255926, "from_low_reference": 0.767261 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.392136, "fair_value_reference": 20.986217, "structural_low": 27.09, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.015801, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": 0.03744, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.254199, "worst_return": -0.199719, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.142833, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.145024, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.568224, "worst_return": -0.247539, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.231216, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.161544, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.290698, "worst_return": -0.081984, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.582781, "energy": 24.989196, "activity_lines": [ 31.784, 31.740647, 32.38057, 34.124959 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.95, "volume": 7763032, "typical_volume": 14175419.2, "trend": 35.740882, "fair_value": 20.524178, "relative_strength": -19.877745, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.810159, "energy": 39.467728, "activity_lines": [ 30.501333, 31.017635, 31.823274, 33.606315 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.88, "volume": 10997028, "typical_volume": 14195620.15, "trend": 35.568995, "fair_value": 20.667108, "relative_strength": -8.463501, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.016119, "energy": 30.280439, "activity_lines": [ 30.709333, 31.120501, 31.727719, 33.357226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.19, "volume": 15263593, "typical_volume": 14413265.4, "trend": 35.399215, "fair_value": 20.801631, "relative_strength": -14.479006, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.016473, "energy": 34.402941, "activity_lines": [ 30.432, 30.9108, 31.511636, 33.010194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.92, "volume": 15700126, "typical_volume": 14421258.35, "trend": 35.392136, "fair_value": 20.986217, "relative_strength": 3.215106, "stage": 2, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.145722, "energy": 2.565333, "activity_lines": [ 32.809333, 32.126182, 32.062684, 33.172825 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }