{ "ticker": { "uuid": "43c731b0-ae6e-430e-95ec-4555f3850a32", "symbol": "CRPT", "name": "FIRST TR EXCHANGE TRADED FD VIII SKYBRIDGE CRYPTO INDSTRY AND DIGTL ECONM", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.436, "architecture_energy": 53.793, "architecture_maturity": 23.161, "architecture_confidence": 89.942, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.1, "rotation_up": 14.28, "upward_expansion": 9.91, "deceleration": 42.02, "rotation_down": 65.18, "downward_expansion": 85.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.44352, 11.754984, 12.652561, 12.887382 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 11.5014, "trend_reference": 13.366217, "distance_from_trend": -0.139517, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.115361, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.185186, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.96178, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.114596, "excess_performance": -0.240221, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.139517, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101262, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.185186, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.354603, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.359618, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131675, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.114596, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.663623, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 397714, "relative_activity": 0.847043, "balance": 0.663623, "dry_up": 1.195735, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.132715, "annualized_volatility": 0.518656, "from_high_reference": -0.533878, "from_low_reference": 0.070396 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.366217, "fair_value_reference": 14.115361, "structural_low": 10.87, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.023734, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.011839, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.443492, "worst_return": -0.190039, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.310567, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.238707, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.944661, "worst_return": -0.246213, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.184733, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.185954, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.651598, "worst_return": -0.269809, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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440676.45, "trend": 13.68517, "fair_value": 14.054352, "relative_strength": -35.26373, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.664673, "energy": 58.68531, "activity_lines": [ 11.690773, 12.192282, 13.001857, 13.180088 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.18, "volume": 793016, "typical_volume": 466532.45, "trend": 13.53317, "fair_value": 14.08298, "relative_strength": -36.629516, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.064739, "energy": 58.612401, "activity_lines": [ 11.501247, 11.914415, 12.80719, 13.018464 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.5014, "volume": 397714, "typical_volume": 469532.45, "trend": 13.366217, "fair_value": 14.115361, "relative_strength": -35.96178, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.435888, "energy": 53.792579, "activity_lines": [ 11.44352, 11.754984, 12.652561, 12.887382 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }