{ "ticker": { "uuid": "43caad82-c444-49ef-8c9d-746219569f8f", "symbol": "GXO", "name": "GXO Logistics Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.361, "architecture_energy": 22.276, "architecture_maturity": 44.03, "architecture_confidence": 95.539, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.38, "rotation_up": 29.48, "upward_expansion": 15.59, "deceleration": 31.87, "rotation_down": 34.31, "downward_expansion": 61.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.575333, 50.762545, 50.923905, 51.985505 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 48.23, "trend_reference": 53.798, "distance_from_trend": -0.103498, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 51.500449, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.063503, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.619927, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.181293, "excess_performance": -0.306918, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.103498, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010927, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.063503, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046878, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.196199, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070967, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.181293, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.575556, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14343244, "relative_activity": 2.117872, "balance": 0.575556, "dry_up": 1.270554, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082976, "annualized_volatility": 0.380562, "from_high_reference": -0.278534, "from_low_reference": 0.062335 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.798, "fair_value_reference": 51.500449, "structural_low": 45.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.00312, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.01711, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.157956, "worst_return": -0.147161, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.013744, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.075887, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.48818, "worst_return": -0.230034, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.114383, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.001063, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.145848, "worst_return": -0.083101, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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50.753273, 51.342619, 52.726387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 52.71, "volume": 4922278, "typical_volume": 6322322.9, "trend": 54.228333, "fair_value": 51.686474, "relative_strength": -8.717402, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.787423, "energy": 17.781008, "activity_lines": [ 52.378, 51.253636, 51.41281, 52.626065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.16, "volume": 6943029, "typical_volume": 6374488.05, "trend": 54.090333, "fair_value": 51.597051, "relative_strength": -13.841561, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.270432, "energy": 17.025018, "activity_lines": [ 51.797333, 51.208, 51.254667, 52.363591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.23, "volume": 14343244, "typical_volume": 6772480.05, "trend": 53.798, "fair_value": 51.500449, "relative_strength": -19.619927, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.361437, "energy": 22.275872, "activity_lines": [ 50.575333, 50.762545, 50.923905, 51.985505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }