{ "ticker": { "uuid": "43d12635-826b-4ee5-8dc6-84b73a654aca", "symbol": "AXFO", "name": "Axfood AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.685, "architecture_energy": 86.497, "architecture_maturity": 29.33, "architecture_confidence": 91.347, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.35, "rotation_up": 11.13, "upward_expansion": 21.54, "deceleration": 37.19, "rotation_down": 72.13, "downward_expansion": 92.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 240.093334, 247.412727, 258.96619, 272.016434 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 239.5, "trend_reference": 287.384826, "distance_from_trend": -0.166623, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 261.297206, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.083419, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.175299, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.261719, "excess_performance": -0.323213, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.166623, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02308, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.083419, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156824, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.251753, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123539, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.261719, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.398911, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1835086, "relative_activity": 1.126746, "balance": 0.398911, "dry_up": 1.911806, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047535, "annualized_volatility": 0.300637, "from_high_reference": -0.283497, "from_low_reference": 0.059266 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 287.384826, "fair_value_reference": 261.297206, "structural_low": 226.100006, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.018581, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": 0.033015, "regime_survival": 0.611111, "best_return": 0.183173, "worst_return": -0.102884, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.112377, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.070144, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.226324, "worst_return": -0.088674, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.038708, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.060359, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.330274, "worst_return": -0.10517, "sufficient": 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"volume": 2417533, "typical_volume": 1601554.35, "trend": 290.400654, "fair_value": 261.264637, "relative_strength": -25.359691, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.463856, "energy": 91.303594, "activity_lines": [ 245.486665, 252.899999, 266.015731, 278.250565 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 243.300003, "volume": 1722571, "typical_volume": 1630539.85, "trend": 289.028382, "fair_value": 261.295146, "relative_strength": -23.055766, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.734182, "energy": 83.221225, "activity_lines": [ 242.766667, 250.26909, 262.479047, 275.211813 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 239.5, "volume": 1835086, "typical_volume": 1628660.15, "trend": 287.384826, "fair_value": 261.297206, "relative_strength": -25.175299, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.685049, "energy": 86.497472, "activity_lines": [ 240.093334, 247.412727, 258.96619, 272.016434 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }