{ "ticker": { "uuid": "43d19db9-e2f0-444e-8710-1ce28eadd4de", "symbol": "ASTR", "name": "Astra Enterprise Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 49.502, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -17.562, "architecture_energy": 16.738, "architecture_maturity": 39.474, "architecture_confidence": 77.821, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.05, "rotation_up": 21.76, "upward_expansion": 14.93, "deceleration": 59.45, "rotation_down": 47.43, "downward_expansion": 42.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.806667, 4.828727, 4.939238, 4.919312 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.74, "trend_reference": 4.829, "distance_from_trend": -0.01843, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.530577, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.873091, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.641496, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.133971, "excess_performance": -0.058354, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01843, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01643, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.873091, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.57705, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.236415, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058136, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.133971, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.514737, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 465100, "relative_activity": 0.174384, "balance": 0.514737, "dry_up": 0.280052, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07952, "annualized_volatility": 0.453979, "from_high_reference": -0.461364, "from_low_reference": 0.669014 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.829, "fair_value_reference": 2.530577, "structural_low": 3.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.044444, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.038305, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.069767, "worst_return": -0.275, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.133333, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.120415, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.209302, "worst_return": -0.372093, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.222222, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.178515, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.216667, "worst_return": -0.35, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.108696, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.173077, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.093023, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.857143, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 6.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.198413, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.153061, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.074297, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.032653, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.49, "volume": 290600, "typical_volume": 302545.0, "trend": 0.659333, "fair_value": 0.950641, "relative_strength": -31.446548, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": 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"mixed", "direction": -18.246164, "energy": 21.656403, "activity_lines": [ 4.796, 4.854727, 4.972762, 4.916731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.94, "volume": 583900, "typical_volume": 3474790.0, "trend": 4.821667, "fair_value": 2.503269, "relative_strength": -22.283267, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.09162, "energy": 8.605837, "activity_lines": [ 4.838667, 4.857091, 4.967381, 4.924581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.74, "volume": 465100, "typical_volume": 2667095.0, "trend": 4.829, "fair_value": 2.530577, "relative_strength": -23.641496, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.561547, "energy": 16.737661, "activity_lines": [ 4.806667, 4.828727, 4.939238, 4.919312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }