{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "43d44e94-c8c8-47d8-a537-a5bcc65bb3d3",
    "symbol": "MACY",
    "name": "Macy's, Inc.",
    "exchange": "VIE",
    "country": "AT",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^ATX",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 68.912,
    "architecture_energy": 54.095,
    "architecture_maturity": 51.338,
    "architecture_confidence": 69.272,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 20.75,
        "rotation_up": 53.66,
        "upward_expansion": 79.36,
        "deceleration": 70.49,
        "rotation_down": 23.71,
        "downward_expansion": 8.36
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        21.218,
        21.043623,
        19.857743,
        18.946741
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 21.73,
    "trend_reference": 18.103598,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.200314,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 14.451277,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.503673,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 3.707737,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.170387,
    "excess_performance": -0.00386,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.200314,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.042955,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.503673,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.320431,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.037077,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.086123,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.170387,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.617639,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 30,
      "relative_activity": 0.040956,
      "balance": 2.617639,
      "dry_up": 1.023208,
      "accumulation_observations": 5,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.068197,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.39799,
      "from_high_reference": -0.050677,
      "from_low_reference": 1.16397
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 18.103598,
      "fair_value_reference": 14.451277,
      "structural_low": 14.688,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 20,
        "median_return": 0.020997,
        "positive_rate": 0.65,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.65,
        "median_excess_return": 0.003759,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": 0.172954,
        "worst_return": -0.186826,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.005198,
        "positive_rate": 0.571429,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.571429,
        "median_excess_return": -0.024153,
        "regime_survival": 0.428571,
        "best_return": 0.35404,
        "worst_return": -0.216826,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.020494,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.066058,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.538758,
        "worst_return": -0.30636,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.035662,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.09258,
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        "best_return": 0.176624,
        "worst_return": -0.208748,
        "sufficient": false
      }
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        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "return": 0.035684,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-03-28",
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 16.631424,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 1266.75,
        "trend": 17.132671,
        "fair_value": 13.792734,
        "relative_strength": -1.493548,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -31.447644,
        "energy": 22.867214,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.509313,
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          16.56726,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 16.353987,
        "volume": 20,
        "typical_volume": 1250.25,
        "trend": 17.213397,
        "fair_value": 13.821333,
        "relative_strength": -4.904518,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -30.124456,
        "energy": 22.702285,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.533536,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 15.392861,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 1250.25,
        "trend": 17.229663,
        "fair_value": 13.843578,
        "relative_strength": -10.295117,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -51.224812,
        "energy": 24.796818,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.173651,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 17.508327,
        "volume": 1929,
        "typical_volume": 1346.7,
        "trend": 17.28285,
        "fair_value": 13.881156,
        "relative_strength": -0.513003,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -15.024374,
        "energy": 10.275955,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.562065,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 18.69735,
        "volume": 2061,
        "typical_volume": 1396.65,
        "trend": 17.357991,
        "fair_value": 13.923503,
        "relative_strength": 2.867332,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": 16.982694,
        "energy": 21.555298,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.269203,
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          16.57629,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 19.252224,
        "volume": 1163,
        "typical_volume": 1049.0,
        "trend": 17.430101,
        "fair_value": 13.966638,
        "relative_strength": 6.43676,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 44.018664,
        "energy": 59.469913,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.047681,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 20.738501,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 1008.1,
        "trend": 17.558407,
        "fair_value": 14.017823,
        "relative_strength": 10.679808,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 53.657367,
        "energy": 78.526212,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 21.030001,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 1008.1,
        "trend": 17.6978,
        "fair_value": 14.074908,
        "relative_strength": 6.883829,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 59.725979,
        "energy": 85.434464,
        "activity_lines": [
          20.050914,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 22.540001,
        "volume": 2029,
        "typical_volume": 1003.35,
        "trend": 17.817594,
        "fair_value": 14.137641,
        "relative_strength": 15.72342,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 66.947753,
        "energy": 88.132812,
        "activity_lines": [
          21.082487,
          19.562885,
          18.097915,
          17.810149
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 20.32,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 1003.35,
        "trend": 17.848189,
        "fair_value": 14.185135,
        "relative_strength": 1.292346,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.055131,
        "energy": 87.845406,
        "activity_lines": [
          21.038616,
          19.891289,
          18.380455,
          17.971595
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 19.77,
        "volume": 3889,
        "typical_volume": 1091.6,
        "trend": 17.850926,
        "fair_value": 14.234927,
        "relative_strength": -0.684945,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.694674,
        "energy": 75.230697,
        "activity_lines": [
          20.703234,
          20.059204,
          18.599123,
          18.095582
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 21.27,
        "volume": 469,
        "typical_volume": 1088.45,
        "trend": 17.903452,
        "fair_value": 14.289771,
        "relative_strength": 8.090705,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 72.237173,
        "energy": 62.097094,
        "activity_lines": [
          20.833334,
          20.442781,
          18.95344,
          18.316168
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 20.450001,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 942.4,
        "trend": 17.953595,
        "fair_value": 14.337174,
        "relative_strength": 1.935241,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 59.233454,
        "energy": 48.01125,
        "activity_lines": [
          20.654667,
          20.587886,
          19.20778,
          18.480461
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 21.49,
        "volume": 2499,
        "typical_volume": 833.6,
        "trend": 18.039063,
        "fair_value": 14.392252,
        "relative_strength": 6.410507,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 69.813308,
        "energy": 51.323316,
        "activity_lines": [
          20.861334,
          20.830133,
          19.537018,
          18.708617
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 21.73,
        "volume": 30,
        "typical_volume": 732.5,
        "trend": 18.103598,
        "fair_value": 14.451277,
        "relative_strength": 3.707737,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.911785,
        "energy": 54.094523,
        "activity_lines": [
          21.218,
          21.043623,
          19.857743,
          18.946741
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}