{ "ticker": { "uuid": "43d63ba7-8734-4876-a343-b67811123237", "symbol": "PANG", "name": "Pangaea Oncology, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.82, "architecture_energy": 36.808, "architecture_maturity": 52.146, "architecture_confidence": 57.176, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.95, "rotation_up": 25.04, "upward_expansion": 16.36, "deceleration": 61.89, "rotation_down": 40.08, "downward_expansion": 64.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.544667, 1.542545, 1.566857, 1.592172 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.55, "trend_reference": 1.622333, "distance_from_trend": -0.044586, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.60891, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.036615, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.612001, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.060606, "excess_performance": -0.185037, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.044586, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031057, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.036615, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016883, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.20612, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030125, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.060606, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.276519, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 387, "relative_activity": 0.074478, "balance": 6.276519, "dry_up": 0.115517, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029777, "annualized_volatility": 0.20283, "from_high_reference": -0.114286, "from_low_reference": 0.047297 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.622333, "fair_value_reference": 1.60891, "structural_low": 1.48, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.002959, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.004899, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.176471, "worst_return": -0.076389, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.024096, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.011036, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.22449, "worst_return": -0.013423, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.013536, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.121048, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.194444, "worst_return": -0.125, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.076471, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.396322, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.180556, "worst_return": -0.169772, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005682, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005714, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034483, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.036145, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022989, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035088, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030303, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035294, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.012739, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.47, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.769701, "energy": 46.09978, "activity_lines": [ 1.532667, 1.544727, 1.577857, 1.602323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.55, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5258.7, "trend": 1.625667, "fair_value": 1.608397, "relative_strength": -19.660312, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.065643, "energy": 39.636695, "activity_lines": [ 1.54, 1.542727, 1.572, 1.597054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.55, "volume": 387, "typical_volume": 5196.2, "trend": 1.622333, "fair_value": 1.60891, "relative_strength": -20.612001, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.820293, "energy": 36.80752, "activity_lines": [ 1.544667, 1.542545, 1.566857, 1.592172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }