{ "ticker": { "uuid": "43dbb662-6148-4c9f-bf0d-0370e3036c5f", "symbol": "002058", "name": "Shanghai Welltech Automation Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.497, "architecture_energy": 85.7, "architecture_maturity": 28.216, "architecture_confidence": 85.725, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.05, "rotation_up": 8.54, "upward_expansion": 21.38, "deceleration": 37.16, "rotation_down": 79.59, "downward_expansion": 97.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.102, 17.571636, 20.279524, 21.116623 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 17.049999, "trend_reference": 22.077, "distance_from_trend": -0.227703, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.614872, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.16662, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.754107, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.207345, "excess_performance": -0.214745, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.227703, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06014, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.16662, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.752417, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.257541, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.353835, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.207345, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.657028, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27508063, "relative_activity": 2.811046, "balance": 0.657028, "dry_up": 1.76791, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.136116, "annualized_volatility": 0.495017, "from_high_reference": -0.455793, "from_low_reference": 0.27429 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.077, "fair_value_reference": 14.614872, "structural_low": 14.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.010738, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": 0.019807, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.253652, "worst_return": -0.179191, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.014286, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.003713, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.991342, "worst_return": -0.236784, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.46538, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.397682, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.845198, "worst_return": 0.007143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055354, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.131822, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.679295, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.085714, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.062183, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012963, "active": false }, { 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14.448333, "relative_strength": -19.180172, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.0489, "energy": 42.020994, "activity_lines": [ 21.217333, 22.882363, 23.237047, 23.199914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 18.08, "volume": 8563500, "typical_volume": 8129399.55, "trend": 22.955333, "fair_value": 14.494038, "relative_strength": -25.66181, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.176078, "energy": 80.474847, "activity_lines": [ 19.944, 21.804, 22.750762, 22.87858 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.8, "volume": 18047410, "typical_volume": 8579796.8, "trend": 22.772333, "fair_value": 14.525128, "relative_strength": -28.595008, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.121395, "energy": 88.097806, "activity_lines": [ 18.323333, 20.438727, 22.074381, 22.416946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.0, "volume": 12678300, "typical_volume": 8470280.8, "trend": 22.544667, "fair_value": 14.548269, "relative_strength": -32.290965, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.104838, "energy": 90.975214, "activity_lines": [ 16.882667, 19.122182, 21.367809, 21.915505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.4, "volume": 10967201, "typical_volume": 8696766.35, "trend": 22.288, "fair_value": 14.574679, "relative_strength": -29.368031, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.990676, "energy": 90.329226, "activity_lines": [ 16.062667, 18.099818, 20.731286, 21.454559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.049999, "volume": 27508063, "typical_volume": 9785704.5, "trend": 22.077, "fair_value": 14.614872, "relative_strength": -25.754107, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.497344, "energy": 85.700384, "activity_lines": [ 16.102, 17.571636, 20.279524, 21.116623 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }