{ "ticker": { "uuid": "43df7a91-5c6b-42d0-b6ed-81caf485d8d4", "symbol": "002269", "name": "Shanghai Metersbonwe Fashion and Accessories Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.889, "architecture_energy": 46.855, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.445, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.23, "rotation_up": 27.52, "upward_expansion": 11.95, "deceleration": 60.52, "rotation_down": 45.68, "downward_expansion": 73.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.380667, 1.381091, 1.451286, 1.524602 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.42, "trend_reference": 1.634667, "distance_from_trend": -0.131321, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.793077, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.208065, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.663128, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.244681, "excess_performance": -0.252081, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.131321, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118778, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.208065, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140446, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.276631, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.244681, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.360933, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 239704200, "relative_activity": 1.022147, "balance": 0.360933, "dry_up": 1.170382, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074215, "annualized_volatility": 0.291983, "from_high_reference": -0.560372, "from_low_reference": 0.100775 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.634667, "fair_value_reference": 1.793077, "structural_low": 1.29, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.02381, "positive_rate": 0.30303, "directional_follow_through": 0.606061, "median_excess_return": -0.017824, "regime_survival": 0.848485, "best_return": 0.212903, "worst_return": -0.312925, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.043133, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.047277, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.247706, "worst_return": -0.339394, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.107302, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.000107, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.303867, "worst_return": -0.317708, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 245486630.8, "trend": 1.71, "fair_value": 1.800641, "relative_strength": -35.953077, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.824093, "energy": 82.807317, "activity_lines": [ 1.379333, 1.438545, 1.525286, 1.604516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.35, "volume": 353820187, "typical_volume": 246406711.4, "trend": 1.690667, "fair_value": 1.799231, "relative_strength": -30.402814, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.002167, "energy": 75.734773, "activity_lines": [ 1.363333, 1.412545, 1.501, 1.58129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.31, "volume": 242159359, "typical_volume": 240584513.6, "trend": 1.667667, "fair_value": 1.797436, "relative_strength": -32.042528, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.815761, "energy": 62.15426, "activity_lines": [ 1.344667, 1.385455, 1.475762, 1.556731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.4, "volume": 262184360, "typical_volume": 241604230.75, "trend": 1.650333, "fair_value": 1.796474, "relative_strength": -25.595652, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.87669, "energy": 55.280241, "activity_lines": [ 1.362, 1.38, 1.461619, 1.539462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.42, "volume": 239704200, "typical_volume": 234510551.9, "trend": 1.634667, "fair_value": 1.793077, "relative_strength": -27.663128, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.88896, "energy": 46.854869, "activity_lines": [ 1.380667, 1.381091, 1.451286, 1.524602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }