{ "ticker": { "uuid": "43dfc30d-4732-4053-a9bf-9d95367f45b6", "symbol": "SUL", "name": "Super Retail Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 73.915, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 33.167, "architecture_energy": 35.65, "architecture_maturity": 7.519, "architecture_confidence": 69.925, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.67, "rotation_up": 61.51, "upward_expansion": 41.72, "deceleration": 26.42, "rotation_down": 16.6, "downward_expansion": 23.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.223333, 13.060909, 12.607857, 12.700852 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.58, "trend_reference": 13.007798, "distance_from_trend": 0.043989, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.540793, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.002895, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.942192, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.040238, "excess_performance": -0.103943, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043989, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066747, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.002895, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.130627, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.099422, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10946, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.040238, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.220546, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1575985, "relative_activity": 0.843157, "balance": 1.220546, "dry_up": 0.849476, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051858, "annualized_volatility": 0.312434, "from_high_reference": -0.288311, "from_low_reference": 0.347222 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.007798, "fair_value_reference": 13.540793, "structural_low": 10.08, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.053444, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.038716, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.126609, "worst_return": -0.148423, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.150108, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.06904, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.313548, "worst_return": -0.151323, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.10508, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.062579, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.398609, "worst_return": -0.121034, "sufficient": true }, { 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076746, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006983, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010707, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.093172, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005309, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.080853, "active": false }, { 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13.459527, "relative_strength": -10.697658, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.020849, "energy": 25.164751, "activity_lines": [ 12.918667, 12.466364, 12.342498, 12.70423 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.16, "volume": 1483911, "typical_volume": 2067117.65, "trend": 13.23771, "fair_value": 13.481035, "relative_strength": -8.733586, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.803697, "energy": 24.22782, "activity_lines": [ 13.021333, 12.657455, 12.394378, 12.694103 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.66, "volume": 1622002, "typical_volume": 2058786.35, "trend": 13.140151, "fair_value": 13.498138, "relative_strength": -11.763007, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.14776, "energy": 15.127796, "activity_lines": [ 12.898, 12.729273, 12.408286, 12.656831 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.31, "volume": 1669289, "typical_volume": 1997903.8, "trend": 13.067519, "fair_value": 13.519878, "relative_strength": -9.165022, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 7.810913, "energy": 18.711355, "activity_lines": [ 13.022, 12.890727, 12.495381, 12.667789 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.58, "volume": 1575985, "typical_volume": 1869147.4, "trend": 13.007798, "fair_value": 13.540793, "relative_strength": -9.942192, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.167288, "energy": 35.649525, "activity_lines": [ 13.223333, 13.060909, 12.607857, 12.700852 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }