{ "ticker": { "uuid": "43e4f153-7cbc-4924-b764-d6680ddc951e", "symbol": "CRU", "name": "Coral Products PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.88, "architecture_energy": 50.114, "architecture_maturity": 68.046, "architecture_confidence": 93.011, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.83, "rotation_up": 27.3, "upward_expansion": 7.77, "deceleration": 52.99, "rotation_down": 53.29, "downward_expansion": 83.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.052133, 0.052718, 0.055081, 0.060322 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.0575, "trend_reference": 0.068183, "distance_from_trend": -0.156685, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.094882, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.393986, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -33.594528, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.323529, "excess_performance": -0.374765, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.156685, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.137738, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.393986, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046851, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.335945, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054736, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.323529, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.984165, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 816432, "relative_activity": 1.412253, "balance": 0.984165, "dry_up": 0.808801, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099987, "annualized_volatility": 0.415974, "from_high_reference": -0.5, "from_low_reference": 0.223404 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.068183, "fair_value_reference": 0.094882, "structural_low": 0.047, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.014493, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": -0.027339, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.243817, "worst_return": -0.157895, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.096154, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.079456, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.353728, "worst_return": -0.263158, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.028488, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.031138, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.21695, "worst_return": -0.352113, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -40.818487, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.841664, "energy": 51.99064, "activity_lines": [ 0.054, 0.054982, 0.059287, 0.065334 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.05125, "volume": 300670, "typical_volume": 560051.35, "trend": 0.071492, "fair_value": 0.096813, "relative_strength": -41.959201, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.59003, "energy": 55.815695, "activity_lines": [ 0.05275, 0.054214, 0.057931, 0.063958 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0485, "volume": 569696, "typical_volume": 577214.2, "trend": 0.070233, "fair_value": 0.096145, "relative_strength": -44.98429, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.36293, "energy": 77.455594, "activity_lines": [ 0.051, 0.053059, 0.05651, 0.062475 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0485, "volume": 183494, "typical_volume": 569152.7, "trend": 0.069142, "fair_value": 0.095478, "relative_strength": -44.694586, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.282091, "energy": 81.224496, "activity_lines": [ 0.04985, 0.052, 0.055286, 0.061073 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0575, "volume": 816432, "typical_volume": 578106.2, "trend": 0.068183, "fair_value": 0.094882, "relative_strength": -33.594528, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.880217, "energy": 50.114158, "activity_lines": [ 0.052133, 0.052718, 0.055081, 0.060322 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }