{ "ticker": { "uuid": "43e6c962-7a37-4a6b-a673-c84d2e83b4c2", "symbol": "CNDT", "name": "Conduent Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.199, "architecture_energy": 23.523, "architecture_maturity": 18.164, "architecture_confidence": 54.468, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.51, "rotation_up": 52.38, "upward_expansion": 66.24, "deceleration": 54.96, "rotation_down": 13.72, "downward_expansion": 9.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.598667, 1.541636, 1.55581, 1.535387 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.7, "trend_reference": 1.533833, "distance_from_trend": 0.108334, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.841506, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.401726, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.623071, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.133333, "excess_performance": -0.05412, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.108334, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088361, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.401726, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010597, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.216231, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102591, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.133333, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.899997, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5370880, "relative_activity": 0.920125, "balance": 0.899997, "dry_up": 0.751723, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.163367, "annualized_volatility": 0.747352, "from_high_reference": -0.42953, "from_low_reference": 0.478261 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.533833, "fair_value_reference": 2.841506, "structural_low": 1.15, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.052287, "positive_rate": 0.35, "directional_follow_through": 0.35, "median_excess_return": -0.052201, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.180723, "worst_return": -0.284615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.076083, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.099374, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.276873, "worst_return": -0.454545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.270479, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.212999, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.371336, "worst_return": -0.434959, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.333465, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.411044, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.130293, "worst_return": -0.430712, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.178667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.180723, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.093333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.07398, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.097506, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.209596, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.081967, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.059925, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007092, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", 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-15.409427, "energy": 8.638649, "activity_lines": [ 1.516667, 1.510182, 1.535333, 1.530387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.48, "volume": 3729036, "typical_volume": 6225978.75, "trend": 1.556167, "fair_value": 2.863878, "relative_strength": -29.768194, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.789207, "energy": 11.576904, "activity_lines": [ 1.518667, 1.501091, 1.533048, 1.524505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.57, "volume": 3555141, "typical_volume": 6012953.35, "trend": 1.545167, "fair_value": 2.851763, "relative_strength": -24.884012, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.665479, "energy": 6.362639, "activity_lines": [ 1.545333, 1.506727, 1.538905, 1.525398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.7, "volume": 5370880, "typical_volume": 5837122.35, "trend": 1.533833, "fair_value": 2.841506, "relative_strength": -21.623071, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.19937, "energy": 23.523027, "activity_lines": [ 1.598667, 1.541636, 1.55581, 1.535387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }