{ "ticker": { "uuid": "43eba9a7-dd87-4809-ba0f-1f7f5831de9f", "symbol": "TLW", "name": "Tullow Oil plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 51.388, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.605, "architecture_energy": 24.801, "architecture_maturity": 31.615, "architecture_confidence": 63.552, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.03, "rotation_up": 50.76, "upward_expansion": 64.33, "deceleration": 63.38, "rotation_down": 13.48, "downward_expansion": 10.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.14196, 0.135909, 0.139051, 0.135229 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.1396, "trend_reference": 0.124963, "distance_from_trend": 0.117128, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.211622, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.340335, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 18.402084, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.803618, "excess_performance": 0.752382, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.117128, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.231328, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.340335, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015474, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.184021, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016361, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.803618, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.771307, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50536168, "relative_activity": 0.831403, "balance": 3.771307, "dry_up": 0.830764, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.158133, "annualized_volatility": 0.84907, "from_high_reference": -0.284103, "from_low_reference": 2.977208 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.124963, "fair_value_reference": 0.211622, "structural_low": 0.0752, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.053896, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.046529, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.294756, "worst_return": 0.014427, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.122696, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.103278, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.19281, "worst_return": 0.052582, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.052276, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.028635, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.111765, "worst_return": -0.007213, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.002489, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.106719, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.326637, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054878, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.373275, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.301444, "active": false }, { 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"gate": "up", "direction": 5.154089, "energy": 17.2375, "activity_lines": [ 0.124453, 0.132516, 0.136574, 0.130265 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.1432, "volume": 58919532, "typical_volume": 71257793.7, "trend": 0.11952, "fair_value": 0.214333, "relative_strength": 23.374846, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.874263, "energy": 10.796083, "activity_lines": [ 0.13128, 0.132891, 0.137264, 0.131977 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.1528, "volume": 51518655, "typical_volume": 63631177.1, "trend": 0.122473, "fair_value": 0.213056, "relative_strength": 30.413889, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.228126, "energy": 23.56291, "activity_lines": [ 0.140227, 0.135425, 0.138829, 0.134124 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.1396, "volume": 50536168, "typical_volume": 60784170.55, "trend": 0.124963, "fair_value": 0.211622, "relative_strength": 18.402084, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.604834, "energy": 24.800592, "activity_lines": [ 0.14196, 0.135909, 0.139051, 0.135229 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }