{ "ticker": { "uuid": "43f48b1b-48d7-4c0c-ac0d-cc7e3242e0a5", "symbol": "2040", "name": "Saudi Ceramic Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.205, "architecture_energy": 74.421, "architecture_maturity": 9.479, "architecture_confidence": 86.161, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.88, "rotation_up": 10.8, "upward_expansion": 17.21, "deceleration": 37.77, "rotation_down": 74.2, "downward_expansion": 92.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.94, 25.477636, 26.559244, 26.922002 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 25.280001, "trend_reference": 27.138684, "distance_from_trend": -0.068488, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.195488, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.070434, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.136218, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.043919, "excess_performance": -0.012089, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.068488, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023188, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.070434, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.192866, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.081362, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.141753, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.043919, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.503372, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 985029, "relative_activity": 0.860636, "balance": 0.503372, "dry_up": 0.81244, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050085, "annualized_volatility": 0.2329, "from_high_reference": -0.217329, "from_low_reference": 0.067161 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.138684, "fair_value_reference": 27.195488, "structural_low": 23.689019, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.009437, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": 0.001989, "regime_survival": 0.730769, "best_return": 0.162692, "worst_return": -0.153846, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.015031, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.017284, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.215867, "worst_return": -0.267622, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.042606, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.030122, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.152098, "worst_return": -0.312788, "sufficient": true }, { 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27.18293, "relative_strength": -8.808544, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.950851, "energy": 73.208045, "activity_lines": [ 25.508, 26.088909, 27.106681, 27.252475 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.059999, "volume": 744086, "typical_volume": 1113430.0, "trend": 27.180014, "fair_value": 27.185174, "relative_strength": -10.754418, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.892586, "energy": 83.84056, "activity_lines": [ 24.95, 25.642545, 26.768636, 27.044583 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.280001, "volume": 985029, "typical_volume": 1144536.75, "trend": 27.138684, "fair_value": 27.195488, "relative_strength": -8.136218, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.204792, "energy": 74.420781, "activity_lines": [ 24.94, 25.477636, 26.559244, 26.922002 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }